{ "ticker": { "uuid": "604c2b29-650d-4f2d-9955-bca5ec7509ed", "symbol": "PRVA", "name": "Privia Health Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.756, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.979, "architecture_energy": 14.518, "architecture_maturity": 61.996, "architecture_confidence": 69.628, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.78, "rotation_up": 25.11, "upward_expansion": 63.52, "deceleration": 85.41, "rotation_down": 35.18, "downward_expansion": 18.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.314667, 24.97, 24.329571, 23.838172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.45, "trend_reference": 23.369333, "distance_from_trend": -0.039339, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.915994, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.48001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020919, "excess_performance": -0.166535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039339, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013971, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024366, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.849652, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9722087, "relative_activity": 1.867075, "balance": 0.849652, "dry_up": 1.2885, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091042, "annualized_volatility": 0.365189, "from_high_reference": -0.221024, "from_low_reference": 0.149514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.369333, "fair_value_reference": 21.915994, "structural_low": 19.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002881, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.017956, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.108122, "worst_return": -0.183339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.044444, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034267, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.137291, "worst_return": -0.0677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.041465, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -7.9e-05, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060297, "worst_return": 0.022634, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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25.327818, 24.237333, 23.740581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.5, "volume": 5228106, "typical_volume": 4944481.15, "trend": 23.382, "fair_value": 21.969006, "relative_strength": 0.004587, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.772578, "energy": 75.448414, "activity_lines": [ 26.524, 25.540545, 24.433238, 23.880172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.67, "volume": 4626956, "typical_volume": 4970175.55, "trend": 23.389, "fair_value": 21.945481, "relative_strength": -7.690413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.690081, "energy": 38.018985, "activity_lines": [ 25.559333, 25.374182, 24.444238, 23.898753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.45, "volume": 9722087, "typical_volume": 5207120.95, "trend": 23.369333, "fair_value": 21.915994, "relative_strength": -16.48001, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.979416, "energy": 14.518408, "activity_lines": [ 24.314667, 24.97, 24.329571, 23.838172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }