{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60520c29-5994-435c-83c1-092e6d490e7e", "symbol": "SIXF", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY 6 MONTH BUFFER10 FEB/AUG ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.112, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.622, "architecture_energy": 83.837, "architecture_maturity": 36.551, "architecture_confidence": 74.608, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 73.92, "upward_expansion": 91.71, "deceleration": 47.81, "rotation_down": 20.31, "downward_expansion": 16.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.584307, 34.346798, 34.001361, 33.552443 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.0748, "trend_reference": 33.0349, "distance_from_trend": 0.06175, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.405089, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.192814, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.094728, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084943, "excess_performance": -0.040682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06175, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026132, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.192814, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03172, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010775, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084943, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.9163, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58524, "relative_activity": 2.717269, "balance": 3.9163, "dry_up": 1.102306, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009815, "annualized_volatility": 0.071076, "from_high_reference": -0.006942, "from_low_reference": 0.160645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.0349, "fair_value_reference": 29.405089, "structural_low": 30.83, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007697, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -9.1e-05, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.020178, "worst_return": -0.032098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036218, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.015653, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.045449, "worst_return": 0.030171, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.075408, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032426, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.084943, "worst_return": 0.065874, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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32.358597, "fair_value": 29.091233, "relative_strength": -3.213602, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.127253, "energy": 70.813223, "activity_lines": [ 33.779233, 33.617829, 32.996559, 32.717598 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 33.9893, "volume": 4229, "typical_volume": 30211.8, "trend": 32.4562, "fair_value": 29.130418, "relative_strength": -3.433227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.951818, "energy": 70.25643, "activity_lines": [ 33.856353, 33.726373, 33.126177, 32.822805 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 33.796, "volume": 18693, "typical_volume": 26400.3, "trend": 32.530183, "fair_value": 29.167446, "relative_strength": -1.556974, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.396195, "energy": 61.933822, "activity_lines": [ 33.84442, 33.767693, 33.229483, 32.909243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 34.07, "volume": 2233, "typical_volume": 23073.8, "trend": 32.6098, "fair_value": 29.206049, "relative_strength": -2.762474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.525456, "energy": 71.945651, "activity_lines": [ 33.91942, 33.844176, 33.351898, 33.008586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.33, "volume": 4243, "typical_volume": 22316.45, "trend": 32.69734, "fair_value": 29.24608, "relative_strength": -3.226645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.55563, "energy": 88.464285, "activity_lines": [ 34.07342, 33.950024, 33.489598, 33.119567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.1973, "volume": 5365, "typical_volume": 22044.5, "trend": 32.778583, "fair_value": 29.284461, "relative_strength": -1.997594, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.631301, "energy": 87.798084, "activity_lines": [ 34.139853, 34.012715, 33.605208, 33.216339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.14, "volume": 18968, "typical_volume": 21918.15, "trend": 32.850357, "fair_value": 29.321812, "relative_strength": -1.504708, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.256223, "energy": 84.486981, "activity_lines": [ 34.161013, 34.053218, 33.706075, 33.304172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.5615, "volume": 12108, "typical_volume": 19794.1, "trend": 32.93774, "fair_value": 29.361809, "relative_strength": -1.272375, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.574653, "energy": 87.446404, "activity_lines": [ 34.312627, 34.160904, 33.83626, 33.414568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.0748, "volume": 58524, "typical_volume": 21537.8, "trend": 33.0349, "fair_value": 29.405089, "relative_strength": -3.094728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.6217, "energy": 83.837377, "activity_lines": [ 34.584307, 34.346798, 34.001361, 33.552443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }