{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6059b8b8-3aa3-4a6f-88f0-9e9461b39ee9", "symbol": "NPV", "name": "Nuveen Virginia Quality Municipal Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 51.786, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.669, "architecture_energy": 60.313, "architecture_maturity": 5.956, "architecture_confidence": 71.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.04, "rotation_up": 18.89, "upward_expansion": 23.53, "deceleration": 40.87, "rotation_down": 66.13, "downward_expansion": 58.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.954567, 11.116721, 11.225625, 11.246699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.96, "trend_reference": 11.2347, "distance_from_trend": -0.024451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.385515, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.771556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009643, "excess_performance": -0.135268, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024451, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012263, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059139, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048086, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58551, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 412696, "relative_activity": 1.926872, "balance": 0.58551, "dry_up": 1.666696, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022618, "annualized_volatility": 0.087068, "from_high_reference": -0.050622, "from_low_reference": 0.088381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.2347, "fair_value_reference": 10.385515, "structural_low": 10.07, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.01803, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040053, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.064796, "worst_return": 0.010049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.010519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00132, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088028, "worst_return": -0.066991, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.095156, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.092377, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004677, "worst_return": -0.19499, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11.289899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.467807, "volume": 180180, "typical_volume": 173241.35, "trend": 11.195039, "fair_value": 10.320699, "relative_strength": -5.273404, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.498188, "energy": 46.950145, "activity_lines": [ 11.430573, 11.398708, 11.364926, 11.308819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.338508, "volume": 259102, "typical_volume": 181980.4, "trend": 11.213783, "fair_value": 10.335796, "relative_strength": -7.373321, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.883264, "energy": 29.429217, "activity_lines": [ 11.401085, 11.390974, 11.364577, 11.318075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.11, "volume": 336563, "typical_volume": 191077.3, "trend": 11.222495, "fair_value": 10.348787, "relative_strength": -7.62071, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.219225, "energy": 7.085638, "activity_lines": [ 11.303449, 11.343769, 11.342445, 11.31138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.92, "volume": 381321, "typical_volume": 195053.05, "trend": 11.229064, "fair_value": 10.36072, "relative_strength": -8.503796, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.518998, "energy": 38.466517, "activity_lines": [ 11.162604, 11.26663, 11.303797, 11.291864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.8, "volume": 297307, "typical_volume": 201045.2, "trend": 11.230988, "fair_value": 10.372578, "relative_strength": -10.24188, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.456406, "energy": 69.804551, "activity_lines": [ 11.010322, 11.173673, 11.255972, 11.264182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.96, "volume": 412696, "typical_volume": 214179.3, "trend": 11.2347, "fair_value": 10.385515, "relative_strength": -11.771556, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.66928, "energy": 60.312594, "activity_lines": [ 10.954567, 11.116721, 11.225625, 11.246699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }