{ "ticker": { "uuid": "605ef92e-1a7d-4c88-8d1d-391deea0e8c2", "symbol": "QTCG", "name": "QTCG_QTCG", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.254, "architecture_energy": 46.72, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.958, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.23, "rotation_up": 70.11, "upward_expansion": 44.06, "deceleration": 31.23, "rotation_down": 16.73, "downward_expansion": 21.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.142, 0.121273, 0.113857, 0.115097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.16, "trend_reference": 0.12, "distance_from_trend": 0.333333, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.290732, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.449664, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.865353, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066667, "excess_performance": -0.125658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.333333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.449664, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165832, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.302354, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.370887, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8383500, "relative_activity": 3.193158, "balance": 6.370887, "dry_up": 3.05462, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 1.030826, "from_high_reference": -0.304348, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.12, "fair_value_reference": 0.290732, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-05", "close": 0.9, "volume": 203822000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.860898, "energy": 73.591361, "activity_lines": [ 0.086, 0.094, 0.103857, 0.11172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.1, "volume": 604700, "typical_volume": 2639965.7, "trend": 0.12, "fair_value": 0.295882, "relative_strength": -43.49155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.385196, "energy": 61.506952, "activity_lines": [ 0.089333, 0.094182, 0.10281, 0.110344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1, "volume": 5944500, "typical_volume": 2651910.7, "trend": 0.118667, "fair_value": 0.29425, "relative_strength": -43.212239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.822483, "energy": 37.868881, "activity_lines": [ 0.092667, 0.094182, 0.101952, 0.109054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.13, "volume": 3492100, "typical_volume": 2529132.1, "trend": 0.118333, "fair_value": 0.292893, "relative_strength": -25.46739, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.221409, "energy": 11.784316, "activity_lines": [ 0.106, 0.1, 0.104095, 0.109785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.16, "volume": 14259000, "typical_volume": 2340422.1, "trend": 0.119333, "fair_value": 0.291803, "relative_strength": -6.535836, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.527238, "energy": 38.204936, "activity_lines": [ 0.126667, 0.111091, 0.109095, 0.112473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.16, "volume": 8383500, "typical_volume": 2625457.1, "trend": 0.12, "fair_value": 0.290732, "relative_strength": -4.865353, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.253533, "energy": 46.719527, "activity_lines": [ 0.142, 0.121273, 0.113857, 0.115097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }