{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60661ab8-5478-4b1c-8a41-66d3d241ba86", "symbol": "KANSAINER", "name": "Kansai Nerolac Paints Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.399, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.044, "architecture_energy": 14.864, "architecture_maturity": 35.011, "architecture_confidence": 54.272, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.71, "rotation_up": 20.6, "upward_expansion": 14.82, "deceleration": 55.74, "rotation_down": 51.74, "downward_expansion": 42.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 202.232004, 204.100308, 205.98955, 203.346791 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 212.350006, "trend_reference": 203.537841, "distance_from_trend": 0.043295, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 257.180935, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.174317, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.345949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009331, "excess_performance": 0.034379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043295, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045491, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.174317, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002181, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008368, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009331, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.357067, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4002045, "relative_activity": 2.005936, "balance": 2.357067, "dry_up": 0.911407, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048657, "annualized_volatility": 0.337855, "from_high_reference": -0.195644, "from_low_reference": 0.344753 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 203.537841, "fair_value_reference": 257.180935, "structural_low": 157.910004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010994, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.030964, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.049344, "worst_return": -0.071236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.141165, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.064839, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.039839, "worst_return": -0.153104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.163712, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.225865, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.077084, "worst_return": -0.223248, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 205.394338, 208.227598, 205.85967, 204.300006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 193.190002, "volume": 882009, "typical_volume": 2132933.65, "trend": 205.686174, "fair_value": 258.643704, "relative_strength": -8.754928, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.504712, "energy": 33.947294, "activity_lines": [ 200.837334, 205.044152, 205.217884, 203.398683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 196.740005, "volume": 1686291, "typical_volume": 1911880.4, "trend": 204.208174, "fair_value": 257.868202, "relative_strength": -9.011745, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.21735, "energy": 30.994442, "activity_lines": [ 198.494002, 202.983731, 204.895145, 202.821511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 212.350006, "volume": 4002045, "typical_volume": 1995101.0, "trend": 203.537841, "fair_value": 257.180935, "relative_strength": -2.345949, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.044205, "energy": 14.863879, "activity_lines": [ 202.232004, 204.100308, 205.98955, 203.346791 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }