{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6068e958-ac68-4445-872d-426e498a2dd7", "symbol": "ESF", "name": "Edil San Felice S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 92.716, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.449, "architecture_energy": 16.594, "architecture_maturity": 24.954, "architecture_confidence": 57.949, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.37, "rotation_up": 13.02, "upward_expansion": 19.87, "deceleration": 77.6, "rotation_down": 55.5, "downward_expansion": 32.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.402, 4.508759, 4.485153, 4.437016 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.33, "trend_reference": 4.435368, "distance_from_trend": -0.023756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.076441, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062201, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.611249, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035635, "excess_performance": -0.206526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03565, "read": "Falling" 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"invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02207, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04329, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.257143, "worst_return": -0.109453, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.103887, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154762, "worst_return": 0.053012, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.013939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.137651, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.234228, "worst_return": -0.206349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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4.726784, 4.607035, 4.457796, 4.457242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.66, "volume": 7299, "typical_volume": 23943.45, "trend": 4.530368, "fair_value": 4.067918, "relative_strength": -14.328586, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.41105, "energy": 42.68729, "activity_lines": [ 4.721382, 4.64047, 4.485791, 4.465197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.43, "volume": 21138, "typical_volume": 24679.45, "trend": 4.509368, "fair_value": 4.070381, "relative_strength": -17.09887, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.817111, "energy": 14.413496, "activity_lines": [ 4.61701, 4.620815, 4.490643, 4.458721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.3, "volume": 12202, "typical_volume": 24649.2, "trend": 4.484701, "fair_value": 4.071933, "relative_strength": -19.110913, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.752207, "energy": 10.255089, "activity_lines": [ 4.493206, 4.569342, 4.482924, 4.445214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.49, "volume": 7928, "typical_volume": 24559.55, "trend": 4.462368, "fair_value": 4.074739, "relative_strength": -15.852118, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.446414, "energy": 11.123612, "activity_lines": [ 4.463333, 4.553142, 4.492586, 4.445556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.33, "volume": 3414, "typical_volume": 24352.8, "trend": 4.435368, "fair_value": 4.076441, "relative_strength": -20.611249, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.448868, "energy": 16.594429, "activity_lines": [ 4.402, 4.508759, 4.485153, 4.437016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }