{ "ticker": { "uuid": "606abc52-5f6a-4819-9040-7877fca7d56a", "symbol": "RBOT", "name": "iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.897, "architecture_energy": 34.303, "architecture_maturity": 72.828, "architecture_confidence": 92.109, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.63, "rotation_up": 33.81, "upward_expansion": 60.31, "deceleration": 88.29, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 21.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.896533, 17.998727, 17.661791, 16.912607 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.771999, "trend_reference": 16.005467, "distance_from_trend": 0.172849, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.08391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.434739, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.718447, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.332481, "excess_performance": 0.16159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.172849, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.434739, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048807, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.077184, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.332481, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.343622, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 315079, "relative_activity": 0.847795, "balance": 1.343622, "dry_up": 0.946396, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047509, "annualized_volatility": 0.263066, "from_high_reference": -0.010229, "from_low_reference": 0.474164 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.005467, "fair_value_reference": 13.08391, "structural_low": 12.83, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018512, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.007608, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.103484, "worst_return": -0.061219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031722, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.036559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069518, "worst_return": -0.236962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019332, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287403, "worst_return": -0.130569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042321, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012262, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017313, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048141, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044378, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050976, 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83.818699, "activity_lines": [ 18.159467, 17.670327, 16.417505, 15.78397 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.288, "volume": 69490, "typical_volume": 401588.55, "trend": 15.223467, "fair_value": 12.805526, "relative_strength": 10.705518, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.048026, "energy": 66.151105, "activity_lines": [ 18.26, 17.872582, 16.679762, 15.99117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.66, "volume": 51573, "typical_volume": 390832.9, "trend": 15.3708, "fair_value": 12.856564, "relative_strength": 9.448806, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.678638, "energy": 69.630556, "activity_lines": [ 18.443467, 18.090145, 16.957448, 16.212882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.27, "volume": 513037, "typical_volume": 402553.55, "trend": 15.517533, "fair_value": 12.903564, "relative_strength": 7.433025, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.368435, "energy": 64.344676, "activity_lines": [ 18.443867, 18.189745, 17.176562, 16.399927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.016001, "volume": 443270, "typical_volume": 382888.7, "trend": 15.625067, "fair_value": 12.942962, "relative_strength": 1.469469, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.864049, "energy": 47.200261, "activity_lines": [ 17.975467, 18.021382, 17.257029, 16.496602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.346001, "volume": 323344, "typical_volume": 375073.7, "trend": 15.742334, "fair_value": 12.98418, "relative_strength": 3.52852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.135576, "energy": 36.632282, "activity_lines": [ 17.680801, 17.918255, 17.356124, 16.60763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.562, "volume": 325201, "typical_volume": 371679.8, "trend": 15.864534, "fair_value": 13.029141, "relative_strength": 3.987324, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.371474, "energy": 26.226707, "activity_lines": [ 17.5628, 17.847491, 17.460457, 16.725028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.771999, "volume": 315079, "typical_volume": 371645.05, "trend": 16.005467, "fair_value": 13.08391, "relative_strength": 7.718447, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.896705, "energy": 34.302509, "activity_lines": [ 17.896533, 17.998727, 17.661791, 16.912607 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }