{ "ticker": { "uuid": "606d5c45-c911-4507-b890-af985cd08215", "symbol": "300098", "name": "Gosuncn Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.897, "architecture_energy": 54.314, "architecture_maturity": 60.801, "architecture_confidence": 91.114, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 23.27, "upward_expansion": 8.67, "deceleration": 58.66, "rotation_down": 56.78, "downward_expansion": 82.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.503333, 4.538364, 4.859381, 5.084065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.67, "trend_reference": 5.466667, "distance_from_trend": -0.145732, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.875705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04219, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.280683, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271451, "excess_performance": -0.278851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145732, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064194, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.04219, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042356, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271451, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.126433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232276177, "relative_activity": 1.225485, "balance": 1.126433, "dry_up": 1.142991, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078241, "annualized_volatility": 0.346021, "from_high_reference": -0.391927, "from_low_reference": 0.133495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.466667, "fair_value_reference": 4.875705, "structural_low": 4.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.02706, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.016348, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.375776, "worst_return": -0.256724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.059583, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.013139, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.292398, "worst_return": -0.154822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.099415, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.121611, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.225877, "worst_return": -0.185819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030635, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100877, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031873, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023529, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003883, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.15245, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 3.6, "volume": 155961287, "typical_volume": 159970945.25, "trend": 3.612, "fair_value": 4.25609, "relative_strength": 3.513129, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.378735, "energy": 90.215627, "activity_lines": [ 4.440667, 4.717636, 5.043095, 5.287333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.22, "volume": 219921823, "typical_volume": 185051136.3, "trend": 5.563, "fair_value": 4.863077, "relative_strength": -25.097374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.508482, "energy": 85.605793, "activity_lines": [ 4.333333, 4.576545, 4.946857, 5.196796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.66, "volume": 230213453, "typical_volume": 186826741.9, "trend": 5.514333, "fair_value": 4.868462, "relative_strength": -15.641621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.140815, "energy": 63.202055, "activity_lines": [ 4.422, 4.546, 4.90019, 5.138538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.67, "volume": 232276177, "typical_volume": 189538208.3, "trend": 5.466667, "fair_value": 4.875705, "relative_strength": -19.280683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.896781, "energy": 54.313768, "activity_lines": [ 4.503333, 4.538364, 4.859381, 5.084065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }