{ "ticker": { "uuid": "606f8bbc-565d-41ea-916c-10073ec64521", "symbol": "000987", "name": "Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.609, "architecture_energy": 34.41, "architecture_maturity": 38.197, "architecture_confidence": 82.846, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.21, "rotation_up": 23.85, "upward_expansion": 4.17, "deceleration": 57.07, "rotation_down": 41.39, "downward_expansion": 72.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.722667, 7.726608, 7.878565, 8.136899 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.75, "trend_reference": 8.589631, "distance_from_trend": -0.097749, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.759588, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14652, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.393936, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.243164, "excess_performance": -0.250564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097749, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003306, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14652, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013443, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243164, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.306211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137246260, "relative_activity": 0.767637, "balance": 0.306211, "dry_up": 0.962769, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069898, "annualized_volatility": 0.27985, "from_high_reference": -0.36683, "from_low_reference": 0.094956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.589631, "fair_value_reference": 6.759588, "structural_low": 7.129476, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.010212, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.012613, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.360489, "worst_return": -0.129717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010784, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.044356, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.596273, "worst_return": -0.103896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033911, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.020967, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.430427, "worst_return": -0.131001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.225252, "energy": 33.381801, "activity_lines": [ 7.78511, 7.729571, 8.00955, 8.307107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.54, "volume": 174593431, "typical_volume": 186248927.7, "trend": 8.595298, "fair_value": 6.737299, "relative_strength": -8.065508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.361096, "energy": 31.407379, "activity_lines": [ 7.718033, 7.686913, 7.941888, 8.239346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.86, "volume": 168895064, "typical_volume": 182242673.8, "trend": 8.602631, "fair_value": 6.748706, "relative_strength": -2.475404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.124737, "energy": 29.40168, "activity_lines": [ 7.745333, 7.714819, 7.912798, 8.191907 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.75, "volume": 137246260, "typical_volume": 178790689.3, "trend": 8.589631, "fair_value": 6.759588, "relative_strength": -8.393936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.609178, "energy": 34.410423, "activity_lines": [ 7.722667, 7.726608, 7.878565, 8.136899 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }