{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6070eb91-0ddf-4266-b9c8-f921cb721178", "symbol": "JDVI", "name": "JOHN HANCOCK EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR DISCIPLINED VALUE INTL SELECT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.69, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.546, "architecture_energy": 46.828, "architecture_maturity": 35.371, "architecture_confidence": 84.832, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.18, "rotation_up": 58.16, "upward_expansion": 79.93, "deceleration": 52.49, "rotation_down": 17.58, "downward_expansion": 6.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.56888, 39.224795, 38.95776, 38.57107 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.7437, "trend_reference": 38.18057, "distance_from_trend": 0.067132, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.173139, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.35033, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.616824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.072601, "excess_performance": -0.053024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067132, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.35033, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015944, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006168, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072601, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.680262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 871053, "relative_activity": 4.868655, "balance": 6.680262, "dry_up": 2.86583, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034692, "annualized_volatility": 0.19503, "from_high_reference": -0.009151, "from_low_reference": 0.317724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.18057, "fair_value_reference": 30.173139, "structural_low": 34.61, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015753, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.005609, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.054402, "worst_return": -0.035826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042994, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.018818, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.084537, "worst_return": -0.014511, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.109317, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013981, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.136092, "worst_return": 0.082543, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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38.893687, 38.872924, 38.479798, 38.187563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.34, "volume": 56526, "typical_volume": 88906.65, "trend": 37.775539, "fair_value": 29.962558, "relative_strength": -1.12463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.555669, "energy": 19.169987, "activity_lines": [ 38.707813, 38.779607, 38.510917, 38.231627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.69, "volume": 936789, "typical_volume": 134615.4, "trend": 37.88758, "fair_value": 30.026731, "relative_strength": 0.2554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.726341, "energy": 19.646593, "activity_lines": [ 38.684467, 38.762655, 38.580696, 38.290624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.5141, "volume": 186539, "typical_volume": 141927.4, "trend": 38.023313, "fair_value": 30.095981, "relative_strength": 1.130979, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.865888, "energy": 28.456875, "activity_lines": [ 38.964047, 38.887691, 38.719128, 38.395561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.7437, "volume": 871053, "typical_volume": 178910.4, "trend": 38.18057, "fair_value": 30.173139, "relative_strength": 0.616824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.546089, "energy": 46.827927, "activity_lines": [ 39.56888, 39.224795, 38.95776, 38.57107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }