{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6070f5b4-93fb-4aee-a642-c9a546be154b", "symbol": "KSTR", "name": "KRANESHARES TR SSE STAR MKT 50 INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.786, "architecture_energy": 24.764, "architecture_maturity": 65.897, "architecture_confidence": 93.125, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.66, "rotation_up": 24.53, "upward_expansion": 57.12, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 37.53, "downward_expansion": 20.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.15, 26.143273, 25.463429, 24.237677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.44, "trend_reference": 22.894, "distance_from_trend": 0.111208, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.184546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.675388, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.47523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.25382, "excess_performance": 0.128195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.111208, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.675388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004635, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.084752, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101083, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25382, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.540724, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9254493, "relative_activity": 3.30858, "balance": 1.540724, "dry_up": 2.177268, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118345, "annualized_volatility": 0.48777, "from_high_reference": -0.218193, "from_low_reference": 0.759336 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.894, "fair_value_reference": 15.184546, "structural_low": 17.74, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027488, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.014403, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.17175, "worst_return": -0.049677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.109674, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.096852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25285, "worst_return": -0.199111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.028451, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.012814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.379879, "worst_return": -0.195948, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091153, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.232673, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054458, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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"volume": 4651362, "typical_volume": 1669643.45, "trend": 21.769667, "fair_value": 14.809285, "relative_strength": 29.625773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.895662, "energy": 68.942617, "activity_lines": [ 27.612, 26.408, 24.218476, 23.098774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.14, "volume": 3449684, "typical_volume": 1794668.75, "trend": 22.156333, "fair_value": 14.908869, "relative_strength": 35.142586, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.616037, "energy": 87.15245, "activity_lines": [ 28.780667, 27.242364, 24.93481, 23.638796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.76, "volume": 3929834, "typical_volume": 1948543.85, "trend": 22.374667, "fair_value": 14.977843, "relative_strength": 11.952557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.743563, "energy": 53.726147, "activity_lines": [ 27.713333, 26.974, 25.095857, 23.806774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.41, "volume": 4478519, "typical_volume": 2122209.3, "trend": 22.598667, "fair_value": 15.049381, "relative_strength": 14.730565, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.962692, "energy": 39.134061, "activity_lines": [ 26.824, 26.806545, 25.301905, 24.002602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.54, "volume": 6697465, "typical_volume": 2382378.9, "trend": 22.737667, "fair_value": 15.10884, "relative_strength": 4.563344, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.922126, "energy": 18.774645, "activity_lines": [ 25.472667, 26.283636, 25.302286, 24.063333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.44, "volume": 9254493, "typical_volume": 2797119.35, "trend": 22.894, "fair_value": 15.184546, "relative_strength": 8.47523, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.785523, "energy": 24.764003, "activity_lines": [ 25.15, 26.143273, 25.463429, 24.237677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }