{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6071e7e7-c0b2-4f87-920a-0b88fd025963", "symbol": "JANW", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER20 JAN ETF ALLIANZIM EQUITY LARGE CAP BUFFER20 JAN ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.098, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.865, "architecture_energy": 82.642, "architecture_maturity": 39.408, "architecture_confidence": 79.631, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.01, "rotation_up": 67.83, "upward_expansion": 92.86, "deceleration": 46.29, "rotation_down": 23.84, "downward_expansion": 17.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.97366, 38.821438, 38.585308, 38.229242 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 39.2601, "trend_reference": 37.823377, "distance_from_trend": 0.037985, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.825226, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160675, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.934693, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053397, "excess_performance": -0.072228, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037985, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160675, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000236, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059347, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000782, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053397, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.700108, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56197, "relative_activity": 0.520439, "balance": 1.700108, "dry_up": 0.870224, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007533, "annualized_volatility": 0.054063, "from_high_reference": -0.000507, "from_low_reference": 0.108413 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.823377, "fair_value_reference": 33.825226, "structural_low": 35.89, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.007806, "positive_rate": 0.761905, "directional_follow_through": 0.761905, "median_excess_return": -0.00375, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.028208, "worst_return": -0.030645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026477, "positive_rate": 0.928571, "directional_follow_through": 0.928571, "median_excess_return": -0.019088, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.039735, "worst_return": -0.026757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062123, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026253, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.07551, "worst_return": 0.010325, "sufficient": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.87, "volume": 306306, "typical_volume": 113576.95, "trend": 37.574087, "fair_value": 33.572119, "relative_strength": -5.246143, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.591906, "energy": 79.609057, "activity_lines": [ 38.649273, 38.569322, 38.206509, 37.905969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.745, "volume": 215468, "typical_volume": 117457.55, "trend": 37.635253, "fair_value": 33.634242, "relative_strength": -3.913144, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.858252, "energy": 79.171632, "activity_lines": [ 38.6995, 38.613013, 38.297619, 37.981512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.71, "volume": 56231, "typical_volume": 113300.9, "trend": 37.692253, "fair_value": 33.695522, "relative_strength": -3.303089, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.122674, "energy": 79.331167, "activity_lines": [ 38.721, 38.642345, 38.377943, 38.050851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.9536, "volume": 47971, "typical_volume": 109345.5, "trend": 37.756373, "fair_value": 33.759392, "relative_strength": -3.58073, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.011187, "energy": 81.696439, "activity_lines": [ 38.8177, 38.708515, 38.47261, 38.132228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.2601, "volume": 56197, "typical_volume": 107979.9, "trend": 37.823377, "fair_value": 33.825226, "relative_strength": -5.934693, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.865228, "energy": 82.64226, "activity_lines": [ 38.97366, 38.821438, 38.585308, 38.229242 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }