{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60742168-9e4f-47ce-9c5e-1e1e7fd08222", "symbol": "TPZ", "name": "TORTOISE ELECTRIFICATION INFRASTRUCTURE ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.779, "architecture_energy": 27.311, "architecture_maturity": 6.651, "architecture_confidence": 61.512, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.77, "rotation_up": 30.64, "upward_expansion": 23.67, "deceleration": 39.94, "rotation_down": 46.53, "downward_expansion": 44.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.645113, 21.766652, 21.840747, 21.879522 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.08, "trend_reference": 21.802398, "distance_from_trend": -0.033134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.767714, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186422, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.623662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012061, "excess_performance": -0.113564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020029, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186422, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099464, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012061, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.415281, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44976, "relative_activity": 0.875103, "balance": 1.415281, "dry_up": 0.943908, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035135, "annualized_volatility": 0.175018, "from_high_reference": -0.07619, "from_low_reference": 0.067279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.802398, "fair_value_reference": 17.767714, "structural_low": 20.836908, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.020286, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.028619, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.116918, "worst_return": -0.051924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075136, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011477, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.095901, "worst_return": 0.012844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.090367, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009848, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.111081, "worst_return": 0.040828, "sufficient": 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22.376, "volume": 59906, "typical_volume": 53895.85, "trend": 21.73751, "fair_value": 17.646535, "relative_strength": -2.40835, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.9381, "energy": 28.384767, "activity_lines": [ 22.121247, 21.978114, 21.968504, 21.93875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.51, "volume": 59290, "typical_volume": 53572.4, "trend": 21.770515, "fair_value": 17.708667, "relative_strength": -6.941147, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.020232, "energy": 6.644996, "activity_lines": [ 21.93018, 21.903074, 21.923633, 21.924072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.08, "volume": 44976, "typical_volume": 51395.1, "trend": 21.802398, "fair_value": 17.767714, "relative_strength": -11.623662, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.779306, "energy": 27.310667, "activity_lines": [ 21.645113, 21.766652, 21.840747, 21.879522 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }