{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6074ad61-32cd-4310-8b87-0a831efc845a", "symbol": "NWC", "name": "The North West Company Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.444, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.502, "architecture_energy": 18.231, "architecture_maturity": 17.719, "architecture_confidence": 70.639, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.22, "rotation_up": 29.03, "upward_expansion": 21.84, "deceleration": 36.6, "rotation_down": 31.71, "downward_expansion": 55.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.536666, 50.388843, 50.611275, 51.173849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 49.59, "trend_reference": 51.605523, "distance_from_trend": -0.039056, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.517247, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.632826, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049774, "excess_performance": -0.170195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039056, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016605, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.11395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046128, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004912, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049774, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.235739, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 394000, "relative_activity": 0.745316, "balance": 2.235739, "dry_up": 0.790952, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03978, "annualized_volatility": 0.212219, "from_high_reference": -0.119739, "from_low_reference": 0.129152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.605523, "fair_value_reference": 44.517247, "structural_low": 47.228731, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009172, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.023064, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.094925, "worst_return": -0.096068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028073, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.018649, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.145497, "worst_return": -0.016397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.100749, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027242, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128363, "worst_return": 0.04732, 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34.538675, "activity_lines": [ 49.782245, 50.274181, 51.262465, 51.469972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 49.43, "volume": 42700, "typical_volume": 607220.0, "trend": 51.191251, "fair_value": 43.819931, "relative_strength": -10.534012, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.909895, "energy": 50.477644, "activity_lines": [ 49.499092, 50.076324, 50.994203, 51.360346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.419998, "volume": 543600, "typical_volume": 610020.0, "trend": 51.3275, "fair_value": 43.963965, "relative_strength": -6.784075, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.406003, "energy": 32.820326, "activity_lines": [ 50.006914, 50.279376, 50.938708, 51.375104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.650002, "volume": 424300, "typical_volume": 583590.0, "trend": 51.435661, "fair_value": 44.107438, "relative_strength": -5.982464, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.631285, "energy": 15.533109, "activity_lines": [ 50.702749, 50.505746, 50.921579, 51.39591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.66, "volume": 357400, "typical_volume": 564020.0, "trend": 51.517055, "fair_value": 44.243109, "relative_strength": -7.814247, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.666325, "energy": 17.608128, "activity_lines": [ 50.85053, 50.516269, 50.828744, 51.345868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.849998, "volume": 496800, "typical_volume": 555015.0, "trend": 51.589236, "fair_value": 44.384187, "relative_strength": -6.792439, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.605499, "energy": 19.355947, "activity_lines": [ 50.940666, 50.561703, 50.772241, 51.302832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.59, "volume": 394000, "typical_volume": 528635.0, "trend": 51.605523, "fair_value": 44.517247, "relative_strength": -11.632826, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.502371, "energy": 18.231086, "activity_lines": [ 50.536666, 50.388843, 50.611275, 51.173849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }