{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60801fbb-c233-4f27-8483-9b8d9625c420", "symbol": "JNS", "name": "JANUS FPO [JNS]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 87.837, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.314, "architecture_energy": 89.731, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.407, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.57, "rotation_up": 79.95, "upward_expansion": 94.97, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 13.36, "downward_expansion": 26.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.289667, 0.240091, 0.210024, 0.191912 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.31, "trend_reference": 0.167217, "distance_from_trend": 0.853882, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.05846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.707122, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 98.741053, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.818182, "excess_performance": 1.754476, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.853882, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.296086, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.707122, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163477, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.987411, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.512778, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.818182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.223598, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2850793, "relative_activity": 1.039994, "balance": 2.223598, "dry_up": 2.880172, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147643, "annualized_volatility": 1.267432, "from_high_reference": -0.074627, "from_low_reference": 5.078431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.167217, "fair_value_reference": 1.05846, "structural_low": 0.105, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.178127, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.175871, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.306129, "worst_return": -0.261905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.19048, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.197023, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.47619, "worst_return": -0.420005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.533333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.547296, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.317466, "worst_return": -0.570006, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.053379, "energy": 51.90978, "activity_lines": [ 0.193333, 0.177364, 0.174583, 0.163347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.27, "volume": 5958068, "typical_volume": 2504532.45, "trend": 0.15025, "fair_value": 1.139646, "relative_strength": 91.39161, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.377883, "energy": 74.641336, "activity_lines": [ 0.225333, 0.194545, 0.1845, 0.171535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.315, "volume": 3377518, "typical_volume": 2630359.75, "trend": 0.158917, "fair_value": 1.099069, "relative_strength": 113.229899, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.935794, "energy": 88.086853, "activity_lines": [ 0.263667, 0.219, 0.19794, 0.182165 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.31, "volume": 2850793, "typical_volume": 2741162.05, "trend": 0.167217, "fair_value": 1.05846, "relative_strength": 98.741053, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.313743, "energy": 89.730844, "activity_lines": [ 0.289667, 0.240091, 0.210024, 0.191912 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }