{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60813ef2-734a-41db-97ad-9c13ac1b9cad", "symbol": "HDL", "name": "SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. American Depositary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.719, "architecture_energy": 25.788, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.0, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.36, "rotation_up": 27.48, "upward_expansion": 20.67, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 31.85, "downward_expansion": 61.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.02396, 12.887962, 13.175361, 13.71085 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.8, "trend_reference": 14.520783, "distance_from_trend": -0.118505, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.286594, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.300034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.769849, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.223423, "excess_performance": -0.410877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118505, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089632, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.300034, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008431, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06728, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223423, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.099917, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3394, "relative_activity": 0.544718, "balance": 1.099917, "dry_up": 0.758657, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0619, "annualized_volatility": 0.313415, "from_high_reference": -0.396372, "from_low_reference": 0.066667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.520783, "fair_value_reference": 18.286594, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.032066, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.064967, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.074044, "worst_return": -0.093919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.105703, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.211626, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.008046, "worst_return": -0.20336, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.20977, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.42753, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.20977, "worst_return": -0.20977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 12.46, 12.842916, 13.463195, 14.138083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.3297, "volume": 5090, "typical_volume": 6348.95, "trend": 14.833783, "fair_value": 18.424048, "relative_strength": -27.669173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.127914, "energy": 56.500108, "activity_lines": [ 12.681233, 12.872042, 13.385072, 14.033152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.19, "volume": 2391, "typical_volume": 6107.9, "trend": 14.730117, "fair_value": 18.378535, "relative_strength": -26.393105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.857299, "energy": 43.800112, "activity_lines": [ 12.882587, 12.877227, 13.31236, 13.927102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.2, "volume": 8033, "typical_volume": 6370.9, "trend": 14.621783, "fair_value": 18.333892, "relative_strength": -25.897611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.151278, "energy": 31.784366, "activity_lines": [ 13.046607, 12.913958, 13.256241, 13.828385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.8, "volume": 3394, "typical_volume": 6230.75, "trend": 14.520783, "fair_value": 18.286594, "relative_strength": -30.769849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.71859, "energy": 25.788395, "activity_lines": [ 13.02396, 12.887962, 13.175361, 13.71085 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }