{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6081bc7d-b4ac-4fbf-a6a5-394c7ea029f8", "symbol": "300850", "name": "Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.125, "architecture_energy": 52.828, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.481, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.18, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 45.76, "downward_expansion": 71.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.368667, 27.002727, 30.214863, 33.725752 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.32, "trend_reference": 37.936786, "distance_from_trend": -0.227135, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.905413, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019575, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.727588, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.341101, "excess_performance": -0.3485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227135, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019575, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.408803, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297276, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148344, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.341101, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.777099, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82600405, "relative_activity": 1.270689, "balance": 0.777099, "dry_up": 1.354146, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112368, "annualized_volatility": 0.555762, "from_high_reference": -0.488271, "from_low_reference": 0.329103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.936786, "fair_value_reference": 29.905413, "structural_low": 22.059999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.059147, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.067788, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.365065, "worst_return": -0.247899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.177614, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.154556, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.357094, "worst_return": -0.414248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.187916, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.057417, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.248801, "worst_return": -0.539201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-45.373449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.774527, "energy": 93.256703, "activity_lines": [ 26.602667, 28.862, 33.917469, 36.946537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 50652192, "typical_volume": 70136351.0, "trend": 39.332022, "fair_value": 30.034117, "relative_strength": -45.580835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.462278, "energy": 93.99091, "activity_lines": [ 24.9, 27.168909, 32.398123, 35.787783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.85, "volume": 91226179, "typical_volume": 69259089.25, "trend": 38.780897, "fair_value": 29.970075, "relative_strength": -36.389415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.808016, "energy": 67.081474, "activity_lines": [ 24.92, 26.508546, 31.346194, 34.917975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.309999, "volume": 127623037, "typical_volume": 67314969.85, "trend": 38.328559, "fair_value": 29.931558, "relative_strength": -26.424051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.461853, "energy": 64.430374, "activity_lines": [ 26.25, 26.699091, 30.723938, 34.306949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.32, "volume": 82600405, "typical_volume": 65004398.5, "trend": 37.936786, "fair_value": 29.905413, "relative_strength": -29.727588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.125104, "energy": 52.827514, "activity_lines": [ 27.368667, 27.002727, 30.214863, 33.725752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }