{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60826b18-6b92-4392-a35d-ca69f5fa1e4f", "symbol": "VESTA", "name": "Corporaci\u00f3n Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.251, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.377, "architecture_energy": 5.446, "architecture_maturity": 24.495, "architecture_confidence": 73.767, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.02, "rotation_up": 35.81, "upward_expansion": 50.77, "deceleration": 69.34, "rotation_down": 20.4, "downward_expansion": 26.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.448426, 59.474359, 59.799253, 59.780737 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 58.900002, "trend_reference": 59.348982, "distance_from_trend": -0.007565, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.402296, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.387071, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062785, "excess_performance": 0.117452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017728, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013871, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007708, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062785, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.530433, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7188610, "relative_activity": 0.717024, "balance": 0.530433, "dry_up": 0.911326, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042365, "annualized_volatility": 0.205675, "from_high_reference": -0.086074, "from_low_reference": 0.242977 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.348982, "fair_value_reference": 56.402296, "structural_low": 53.511109, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.012351, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005581, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.064081, "worst_return": -0.060947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00366, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.019166, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.112236, "worst_return": -0.053319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.098266, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036992, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.132658, "worst_return": 0.044234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057695, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064997, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03003, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068776, "active": 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60.008215, 59.596221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 59.656385, "volume": 9125488, "typical_volume": 10504317.85, "trend": 58.868335, "fair_value": 56.378044, "relative_strength": 3.393128, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.704033, "energy": 10.42436, "activity_lines": [ 59.475095, 59.469508, 59.962957, 59.654711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.59, "volume": 9094981, "typical_volume": 10162073.1, "trend": 59.040983, "fair_value": 56.40293, "relative_strength": 4.680412, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.573384, "energy": 14.491014, "activity_lines": [ 59.912208, 59.642721, 60.013291, 59.765787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.73, "volume": 11003082, "typical_volume": 10199802.25, "trend": 59.117323, "fair_value": 56.389631, "relative_strength": 1.796253, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.197618, "energy": 9.919087, "activity_lines": [ 59.608209, 59.494297, 59.89909, 59.745723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.049999, "volume": 9259779, "typical_volume": 10126881.6, "trend": 59.289959, "fair_value": 56.401215, "relative_strength": 3.299252, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.352234, "energy": 13.41428, "activity_lines": [ 59.765722, 59.594964, 59.911172, 59.805896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.900002, "volume": 7188610, "typical_volume": 10025625.0, "trend": 59.348982, "fair_value": 56.402296, "relative_strength": 1.387071, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.376731, "energy": 5.446268, "activity_lines": [ 59.448426, 59.474359, 59.799253, 59.780737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }