{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60828f95-fca0-4722-957b-ac09f5a22f1a", "symbol": "600095", "name": "Xiangcai Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.804, "architecture_energy": 24.365, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.925, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.53, "rotation_up": 33.8, "upward_expansion": 18.56, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 25.04, "downward_expansion": 57.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.414, 8.183818, 8.315857, 8.66843 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.18, "trend_reference": 9.283333, "distance_from_trend": -0.118851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.484505, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.825618, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.255687, "excess_performance": -0.212483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118851, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112718, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110236, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013054, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255687, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.546507, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 235601089, "relative_activity": 1.643742, "balance": 0.546507, "dry_up": 2.320697, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090653, "annualized_volatility": 0.318692, "from_high_reference": -0.438572, "from_low_reference": 0.136111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.283333, "fair_value_reference": 8.484505, "structural_low": 7.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.016504, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.014383, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.205298, "worst_return": -0.231325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.032664, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001859, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.294766, "worst_return": -0.279917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.082643, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02447, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.330696, "worst_return": -0.207113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 8.69, "volume": 268513637, "typical_volume": 107311057.85, "trend": 9.550667, "fair_value": 8.471599, "relative_strength": -13.63699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.562942, "energy": 45.800388, "activity_lines": [ 7.969333, 7.976909, 8.37919, 8.859699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.53, "volume": 555922853, "typical_volume": 128376201.0, "trend": 9.464667, "fair_value": 8.476476, "relative_strength": -15.820951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.662452, "energy": 28.684629, "activity_lines": [ 8.196, 8.050545, 8.355571, 8.793849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.72, "volume": 270484411, "typical_volume": 137039755.95, "trend": 9.379333, "fair_value": 8.482253, "relative_strength": -13.812867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.25452, "energy": 23.007941, "activity_lines": [ 8.433333, 8.163273, 8.358333, 8.745806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.18, "volume": 235601089, "typical_volume": 143332125.35, "trend": 9.283333, "fair_value": 8.484505, "relative_strength": -20.825618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.804438, "energy": 24.365368, "activity_lines": [ 8.414, 8.183818, 8.315857, 8.66843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }