{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6082b573-439d-4f5f-a77f-f92e9a06d52a", "symbol": "AHLEAST", "name": "Asian Hotels (East) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 66.66, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.769, "architecture_energy": 30.102, "architecture_maturity": 14.681, "architecture_confidence": 58.871, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.67, "rotation_up": 24.39, "upward_expansion": 11.25, "deceleration": 53.55, "rotation_down": 51.8, "downward_expansion": 50.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 144.823334, 146.280001, 151.448096, 152.658108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 143.229996, "trend_reference": 152.130667, "distance_from_trend": -0.058507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 146.023472, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.742219, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007243, "excess_performance": 0.050952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184702, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007243, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.430028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15203, "relative_activity": 0.693068, "balance": 0.430028, "dry_up": 0.745551, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069243, "annualized_volatility": 0.259579, "from_high_reference": -0.182944, "from_low_reference": 0.12558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 152.130667, "fair_value_reference": 146.023472, "structural_low": 138.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033151, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009549, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.021985, "worst_return": -0.052166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.042532, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025095, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142044, "worst_return": -0.083684, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.079141, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17519, "worst_return": 0.045416, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009841, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066794, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036347, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062066, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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154.026431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 146.229996, "volume": 28098, "typical_volume": 27750.45, "trend": 152.097334, "fair_value": 145.743939, "relative_strength": 1.352222, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.20517, "energy": 46.026146, "activity_lines": [ 145.750001, 148.837456, 153.430667, 153.676409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 145.100006, "volume": 12065, "typical_volume": 27336.55, "trend": 152.016334, "fair_value": 145.872009, "relative_strength": -1.842247, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.217303, "energy": 36.025762, "activity_lines": [ 145.460003, 147.54582, 152.509954, 153.224969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 143.229996, "volume": 15203, "typical_volume": 21935.8, "trend": 152.130667, "fair_value": 146.023472, "relative_strength": -3.742219, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.769478, "energy": 30.10241, "activity_lines": [ 144.823334, 146.280001, 151.448096, 152.658108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }