{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6083a139-d166-4101-bf6d-5c9d296fbfc3", "symbol": "EUROTEXIND", "name": "Eurotex Industries and Exports Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.167, "architecture_energy": 57.563, "architecture_maturity": 10.156, "architecture_confidence": 83.967, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.15, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 26.8, "deceleration": 49.88, "rotation_down": 72.16, "downward_expansion": 56.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.094, 14.308182, 15.177143, 14.937441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.37, "trend_reference": 14.484666, "distance_from_trend": -0.076955, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.180962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.286392, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.01673, "excess_performance": 0.060439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076955, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055533, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291632, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.326224, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3396, "relative_activity": 0.239691, "balance": 0.326224, "dry_up": 0.373688, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13578, "annualized_volatility": 0.528013, "from_high_reference": -0.432994, "from_low_reference": 0.130178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.484666, "fair_value_reference": 14.180962, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.072653, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029705, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.497326, "worst_return": -0.375546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012014, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.017271, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.210612, "worst_return": -0.549407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.100528, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.120578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.396436, "worst_return": -0.130435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.195219, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.164564, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.29551, "worst_return": 0.15415, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.250441, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01084, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.162696, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.234568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.063189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.227961, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058649, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050445, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.380259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148352, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.187535, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092262, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03885, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.8, "volume": 3063, "typical_volume": 10198.35, "trend": 13.201667, "fair_value": 10.647115, "relative_strength": -11.01824, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.69916, "energy": 33.398559, "activity_lines": [ 12.136667, 12.618182, 12.600714, 12.794946 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 11.2, "volume": 3159, "typical_volume": 10356.3, "trend": 13.088333, "fair_value": 10.655128, "relative_strength": -15.268281, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.793184, "energy": 49.127211, "activity_lines": [ 11.783333, 12.280909, 12.476667, 12.665806 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 10.4, "volume": 3108, "typical_volume": 10511.7, "trend": 12.948333, "fair_value": 10.662821, "relative_strength": -21.880079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.551856, "energy": 64.210423, "activity_lines": [ 11.25, 11.849091, 12.292619, 12.492366 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 12.35, "volume": 12039, "typical_volume": 10941.15, "trend": 12.873333, "fair_value": 10.680128, "relative_strength": -9.063313, "stage": 4, "regime": 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39.090164, "activity_lines": [ 17.209333, 17.051272, 16.09, 15.344344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.6, "volume": 5947, "typical_volume": 15285.35, "trend": 14.576, "fair_value": 14.165705, "relative_strength": -3.354446, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.383173, "energy": 14.862231, "activity_lines": [ 16.246, 16.641818, 16.039809, 15.34 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.44, "volume": 13178, "typical_volume": 15925.15, "trend": 14.575, "fair_value": 14.171731, "relative_strength": -11.409282, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.610486, "energy": 17.660154, "activity_lines": [ 15.009333, 16.040545, 15.868476, 15.266709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.2, "volume": 1909, "typical_volume": 15665.65, "trend": 14.506333, "fair_value": 14.169808, "relative_strength": -17.55215, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.775346, "energy": 40.556317, "activity_lines": [ 13.759333, 15.279636, 15.576524, 15.113484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.87, "volume": 2695, "typical_volume": 15205.15, "trend": 14.462333, "fair_value": 14.1725, "relative_strength": -15.13627, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.170549, "energy": 50.446837, "activity_lines": [ 13.173333, 14.716545, 15.350762, 15.007914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.37, "volume": 3396, "typical_volume": 14168.25, "trend": 14.484666, "fair_value": 14.180962, "relative_strength": -12.286392, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.166512, "energy": 57.56334, "activity_lines": [ 13.094, 14.308182, 15.177143, 14.937441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }