{ "ticker": { "uuid": "608471b4-7ac2-4f9e-8c9b-6ea46ade37e7", "symbol": "MDRR", "name": "Medalist Diversified Reit Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 58.596, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.946, "architecture_energy": 25.808, "architecture_maturity": 21.18, "architecture_confidence": 44.102, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.67, "rotation_up": 50.54, "upward_expansion": 50.17, "deceleration": 30.51, "rotation_down": 27.47, "downward_expansion": 15.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.605746, 11.496694, 11.370915, 11.36799 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.17, "trend_reference": 11.429854, "distance_from_trend": 0.064756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.421071, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065574, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.110869, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088224, "excess_performance": -0.099229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064756, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065574, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081512, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121109, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106342, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088224, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.183141, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114662, "relative_activity": 7.916487, "balance": 3.183141, "dry_up": 2.272723, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075858, "annualized_volatility": 0.30019, "from_high_reference": -0.152152, "from_low_reference": 0.285111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.429854, "fair_value_reference": 11.421071, "structural_low": 9.47, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.00812, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.008824, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.128281, "worst_return": -0.127248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009377, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.063477, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.113319, "worst_return": -0.146527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.077866, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.122152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193885, "worst_return": -0.196147, "sufficient": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.177992, "energy": 5.120754, "activity_lines": [ 11.36979, 11.334417, 11.288621, 11.346172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.14, "volume": 7376, "typical_volume": 9262.3, "trend": 11.458702, "fair_value": 11.406065, "relative_strength": -15.408815, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.207473, "energy": 12.240204, "activity_lines": [ 11.288775, 11.317413, 11.274231, 11.324035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.4001, "volume": 5593, "typical_volume": 9197.3, "trend": 11.430098, "fair_value": 11.409757, "relative_strength": -13.598511, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.11781, "energy": 10.16299, "activity_lines": [ 11.327166, 11.347882, 11.285599, 11.320254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.17, "volume": 114662, "typical_volume": 14483.95, "trend": 11.429854, "fair_value": 11.421071, "relative_strength": -12.110869, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.946368, "energy": 25.808235, "activity_lines": [ 11.605746, 11.496694, 11.370915, 11.36799 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }