{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60866ad2-22e2-4f2a-acea-5c8ffe3b037d", "symbol": "FHQ", "name": "FT AlphaDEX U.S. Technology Sector Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.84, "architecture_energy": 32.878, "architecture_maturity": 74.166, "architecture_confidence": 87.282, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.49, "rotation_up": 32.12, "upward_expansion": 60.68, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 22.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 135.199335, 136.344183, 133.733906, 128.210904 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 141.669998, "trend_reference": 121.649334, "distance_from_trend": 0.164577, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 98.320786, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.440896, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.081097, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.301516, "excess_performance": 0.181095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164577, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.440896, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074239, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.080811, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036497, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.301516, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.467033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1500, "relative_activity": 0.837989, "balance": 0.467033, "dry_up": 0.949721, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044665, "annualized_volatility": 0.25867, "from_high_reference": -0.023235, "from_low_reference": 0.410775 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 121.649334, "fair_value_reference": 98.320786, "structural_low": 100.419998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001414, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016585, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.093794, "worst_return": -0.161553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036183, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.03128, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.05442, "worst_return": -0.10662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063237, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.045628, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232254, "worst_return": -0.132963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011787, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"trend": 115.993, "fair_value": 95.495034, "relative_strength": 13.760075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.655695, "energy": 91.982474, "activity_lines": [ 139.944669, 134.338365, 124.673858, 120.326861 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 138.639999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1570.0, "trend": 116.970333, "fair_value": 95.924819, "relative_strength": 10.160898, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.341536, "energy": 73.50993, "activity_lines": [ 140.255335, 136.021819, 126.641144, 121.787957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 138.110001, "volume": 12900, "typical_volume": 2130.0, "trend": 117.797, "fair_value": 96.348322, "relative_strength": 8.853909, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.3327, "energy": 66.252264, "activity_lines": [ 139.669335, 137.182547, 128.416096, 123.151807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 140.580002, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 1930.0, "trend": 118.76, "fair_value": 96.772919, "relative_strength": 10.478168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.702965, "energy": 66.221388, "activity_lines": [ 139.680002, 138.423274, 130.278239, 124.621678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 130.330002, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 1990.0, "trend": 119.370334, "fair_value": 97.136104, "relative_strength": 2.595552, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.827268, "energy": 49.582158, "activity_lines": [ 136.571335, 137.411638, 131.00762, 125.36813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 132.0, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 1880.0, "trend": 120.076334, "fair_value": 97.503586, "relative_strength": 3.641726, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.100108, "energy": 37.716707, "activity_lines": [ 134.528001, 136.643456, 131.781287, 126.182947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.600006, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 1860.0, "trend": 120.760334, "fair_value": 97.870297, "relative_strength": 3.001572, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.467731, "energy": 27.948921, "activity_lines": [ 132.750669, 135.512548, 132.293811, 126.861893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 141.669998, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 1790.0, "trend": 121.649334, "fair_value": 98.320786, "relative_strength": 8.081097, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.839744, "energy": 32.877748, "activity_lines": [ 135.199335, 136.344183, 133.733906, 128.210904 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }