{ "ticker": { "uuid": "608ac56d-48b7-4b9c-b0db-955063dd07d4", "symbol": "83081", "name": "Value Gold ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.213, "architecture_energy": 62.659, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.76, "rotation_up": 29.66, "upward_expansion": 11.16, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 56.27, "downward_expansion": 86.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.803334, 16.823818, 17.438857, 18.068753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.43, "trend_reference": 18.893667, "distance_from_trend": -0.077469, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.726026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.663032, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.212031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.137982, "excess_performance": -0.104401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077469, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.508685, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.663032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02163, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.60212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077466, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137982, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.189967, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89800, "relative_activity": 0.95233, "balance": 0.189967, "dry_up": 0.583541, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035483, "annualized_volatility": 0.236394, "from_high_reference": -0.816604, "from_low_reference": 0.073937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.893667, "fair_value_reference": 51.726026, "structural_low": 16.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.011271, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.000804, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.070874, "worst_return": -0.076632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01331, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.044767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.039131, "worst_return": -0.172764, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047826, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.055759, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.092508, "worst_return": -0.157786, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002715, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002711, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.214346, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013402, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.213566, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015982, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.309813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020076, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.098293, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 42.080002, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 3640.0, "trend": 41.482667, "fair_value": 37.708462, "relative_strength": 13.233559, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.780001, "volume": 48300, "typical_volume": 110065.0, "trend": 24.138333, "fair_value": 52.390705, "relative_strength": -63.089041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.157011, "energy": 70.833894, "activity_lines": [ 16.894667, 17.348, 18.114286, 19.163742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.280001, "volume": 64000, "typical_volume": 110770.0, "trend": 21.621, "fair_value": 52.219039, "relative_strength": -63.919114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.197635, "energy": 74.338977, "activity_lines": [ 16.669334, 17.073455, 17.871667, 18.656753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.52, "volume": 55400, "typical_volume": 107365.0, "trend": 19.003667, "fair_value": 52.051474, "relative_strength": -63.126338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.742371, "energy": 69.610471, "activity_lines": [ 16.573334, 16.897455, 17.676286, 18.327656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.5, "volume": 10900, "typical_volume": 104940.0, "trend": 18.939333, "fair_value": 51.885321, "relative_strength": -63.5883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.761298, "energy": 68.761912, "activity_lines": [ 16.534, 16.758, 17.502238, 18.166129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.43, "volume": 89800, "typical_volume": 94295.0, "trend": 18.893667, "fair_value": 51.726026, "relative_strength": -60.212031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.213279, "energy": 62.659035, "activity_lines": [ 16.803334, 16.823818, 17.438857, 18.068753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }