{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60908528-84f2-42f2-a078-d63b265179db", "symbol": "NUDM", "name": "NUVEEN ESG INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED MARKETS EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.404, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.985, "architecture_energy": 65.496, "architecture_maturity": 35.071, "architecture_confidence": 83.067, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.9, "rotation_up": 63.2, "upward_expansion": 85.25, "deceleration": 50.29, "rotation_down": 19.59, "downward_expansion": 11.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.562733, 40.228918, 39.601629, 39.056531 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.5982, "trend_reference": 38.5409, "distance_from_trend": 0.079326, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.230413, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.331977, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.174463, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.07129, "excess_performance": -0.054335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079326, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036221, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.331977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031957, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001745, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01718, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07129, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.849649, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99536, "relative_activity": 0.423921, "balance": 1.849649, "dry_up": 0.973609, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025944, "annualized_volatility": 0.184301, "from_high_reference": -0.001244, "from_low_reference": 0.243748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.5409, "fair_value_reference": 31.230413, "structural_low": 34.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.009425, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.009952, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.054856, "worst_return": -0.078726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.034989, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.017269, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.102301, "worst_return": -0.112169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0522, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.038674, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.159204, "worst_return": -0.036862, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.162788, "energy": 58.550784, "activity_lines": [ 39.950667, 39.643193, 38.983664, 38.614535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.65, "volume": 171331, "typical_volume": 251991.65, "trend": 38.263307, "fair_value": 31.023721, "relative_strength": -0.355039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.924739, "energy": 51.310104, "activity_lines": [ 39.862, 39.703925, 39.118789, 38.710515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.42, "volume": 472171, "typical_volume": 257434.35, "trend": 38.39164, "fair_value": 31.123011, "relative_strength": 0.421509, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.60332, "energy": 47.983804, "activity_lines": [ 40.046667, 39.873767, 39.314247, 38.849657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.5982, "volume": 99536, "typical_volume": 234798.4, "trend": 38.5409, "fair_value": 31.230413, "relative_strength": -0.174463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.984846, "energy": 65.496138, "activity_lines": [ 40.562733, 40.228918, 39.601629, 39.056531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }