{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60914f79-157c-42f1-8a87-5bf129ec227f", "symbol": "URNJ", "name": "Sprott Junior Uranium Miners UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.122, "architecture_energy": 62.104, "architecture_maturity": 25.262, "architecture_confidence": 95.032, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.02, "rotation_up": 20.23, "upward_expansion": 11.57, "deceleration": 45.96, "rotation_down": 64.22, "downward_expansion": 87.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.98, 7.119455, 7.650362, 8.076187 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.391, "trend_reference": 8.6626, "distance_from_trend": -0.146792, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.009839, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054375, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.943915, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173081, "excess_performance": -0.343973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146792, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013529, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054375, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284868, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229439, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298114, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173081, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.408365, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81370, "relative_activity": 1.473363, "balance": 0.408365, "dry_up": 0.759034, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084458, "annualized_volatility": 0.459221, "from_high_reference": -0.383981, "from_low_reference": 0.356894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.6626, "fair_value_reference": 7.009839, "structural_low": 6.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.103504, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.091274, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.103504, "worst_return": -0.103504, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053008, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083566, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-08", "close": 7.178, "volume": 145, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-15", "close": 6.761, "volume": 1149, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-22", "close": 6.761, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": 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8.757959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.391, "volume": 143, "typical_volume": 84281.75, "trend": 8.834967, "fair_value": 7.011578, "relative_strength": -22.213508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.510656, "energy": 78.186932, "activity_lines": [ 7.512333, 7.826127, 8.359967, 8.663643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.327, "volume": 47591, "typical_volume": 79337.25, "trend": 8.835, "fair_value": 7.014142, "relative_strength": -22.595755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.128712, "energy": 74.014144, "activity_lines": [ 7.421933, 7.676473, 8.222362, 8.566355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.565, "volume": 20611, "typical_volume": 73508.15, "trend": 8.7947, "fair_value": 7.01052, "relative_strength": -29.44475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.658951, "energy": 88.222272, "activity_lines": [ 7.1148, 7.422091, 8.026286, 8.419903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.928, "volume": 43216, "typical_volume": 66698.55, "trend": 8.763567, "fair_value": 7.00986, "relative_strength": -25.258846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.578203, "energy": 80.222443, "activity_lines": [ 6.992667, 7.2836, 7.882795, 8.299471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.626, "volume": 22481, "typical_volume": 56638.05, "trend": 8.714333, "fair_value": 7.006813, "relative_strength": -28.930522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.98677, "energy": 82.470633, "activity_lines": [ 6.8388, 7.118055, 7.723695, 8.161563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.391, "volume": 81370, "typical_volume": 55227.4, "trend": 8.6626, "fair_value": 7.009839, "relative_strength": -22.943915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.1218, "energy": 62.104315, "activity_lines": [ 6.98, 7.119455, 7.650362, 8.076187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }