{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60946113-0d74-4760-a076-1f1b17b21e99", "symbol": "OPAD", "name": "Offerpad Solutions Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.691, "architecture_energy": 48.647, "architecture_maturity": 90.788, "architecture_confidence": 94.611, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.62, "rotation_up": 22.16, "upward_expansion": 6.93, "deceleration": 55.05, "rotation_down": 53.12, "downward_expansion": 77.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.455333, 4.674236, 5.428019, 6.002738 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.79, "trend_reference": 7.056567, "distance_from_trend": -0.3212, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.70384, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.879357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -73.190783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.484946, "excess_performance": -0.610571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.3212, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.368623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.879357, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01874, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.731908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076913, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.484946, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.477326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 498628, "relative_activity": 0.235655, "balance": 0.477326, "dry_up": 0.130049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.254103, "annualized_volatility": 0.862345, "from_high_reference": -0.924567, "from_low_reference": 0.372493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.056567, "fair_value_reference": 39.70384, "structural_low": 3.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.098867, "positive_rate": 0.189189, "directional_follow_through": 0.783784, "median_excess_return": -0.108976, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 3.221311, "worst_return": -0.408088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.260239, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.26589, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.445946, "worst_return": -0.614243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.526019, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.582893, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.424581, "worst_return": -0.844362, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 5.18, "volume": 192829, "typical_volume": 2677883.05, "trend": 8.2339, "fair_value": 41.727686, "relative_strength": -71.0439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.559138, "energy": 51.091557, "activity_lines": [ 5.061333, 5.350782, 6.022681, 6.720288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.02, "volume": 205882, "typical_volume": 2464029.15, "trend": 7.941233, "fair_value": 41.063712, "relative_strength": -76.970147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.146765, "energy": 54.204404, "activity_lines": [ 4.728, 5.040636, 5.787595, 6.448424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.87, "volume": 203354, "typical_volume": 2294146.85, "trend": 7.6269, "fair_value": 40.399417, "relative_strength": -77.804992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.4749, "energy": 57.202123, "activity_lines": [ 4.414667, 4.744655, 5.554795, 6.185763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.79, "volume": 498628, "typical_volume": 2115927.5, "trend": 7.056567, "fair_value": 39.70384, "relative_strength": -73.190783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.691385, "energy": 48.647173, "activity_lines": [ 4.455333, 4.674236, 5.428019, 6.002738 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }