{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6095a43f-e079-4177-a9ef-5e1ab327204c", "symbol": "HCON", "name": "Global X Conservative Asset Allocation ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.663, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.016, "architecture_energy": 35.182, "architecture_maturity": 61.005, "architecture_confidence": 80.078, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.21, "rotation_up": 30.72, "upward_expansion": 59.06, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 27.79, "downward_expansion": 22.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.323945, 15.345855, 15.273399, 15.149105 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.39, "trend_reference": 15.013746, "distance_from_trend": 0.025061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.339487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153718, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.535017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038404, "excess_performance": -0.082018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000931, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038404, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.36, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2800, "relative_activity": 0.299786, "balance": 7.36, "dry_up": 0.259636, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009027, "annualized_volatility": 0.065054, "from_high_reference": -0.013089, "from_low_reference": 0.104203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.013746, "fair_value_reference": 13.339487, "structural_low": 14.348609, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.021407, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000441, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.04057, "worst_return": -0.035988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021329, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.001033, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.0778, "worst_return": -0.023571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030189, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.037148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089904, "worst_return": -0.036253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.105228, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019551, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106747, "worst_return": -0.153691, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.068541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01661, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027019, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.077155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019367, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021423, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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"energy": 86.480672, "activity_lines": [ 15.40607, 15.333841, 15.13395, 15.027978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.404541, "volume": 44000, "typical_volume": 12485.0, "trend": 14.924808, "fair_value": 13.240489, "relative_strength": -5.803789, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.008435, "energy": 82.022325, "activity_lines": [ 15.409293, 15.36203, 15.17384, 15.060673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.284817, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 12510.0, "trend": 14.949826, "fair_value": 13.264889, "relative_strength": -6.155309, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.472919, "energy": 59.624615, "activity_lines": [ 15.370648, 15.360219, 15.200161, 15.083899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.205, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 11905.0, "trend": 14.969884, "fair_value": 13.288422, "relative_strength": -6.640848, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.949715, "energy": 40.997113, "activity_lines": [ 15.307096, 15.338927, 15.217779, 15.100362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.33, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 10980.0, "trend": 14.994604, "fair_value": 13.313526, "relative_strength": -5.186276, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.891366, "energy": 34.013775, "activity_lines": [ 15.302538, 15.338836, 15.244643, 15.123595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.39, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 9340.0, "trend": 15.013746, "fair_value": 13.339487, "relative_strength": -7.535017, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.01562, "energy": 35.182459, "activity_lines": [ 15.323945, 15.345855, 15.273399, 15.149105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }