{ "ticker": { "uuid": "609a1718-a1fa-4123-a8ab-a3fbf56cbb0e", "symbol": "P7VU", "name": "Hutchison Port Holdings Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.235, "architecture_energy": 40.022, "architecture_maturity": 71.517, "architecture_confidence": 86.286, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.93, "rotation_up": 26.95, "upward_expansion": 18.62, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 40.32, "downward_expansion": 68.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.238171, 0.236721, 0.245013, 0.250623 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.24, "trend_reference": 0.257127, "distance_from_trend": -0.066611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.201349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191961, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.048289, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.109168, "excess_performance": -0.264003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066611, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027893, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191961, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129892, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173073, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109168, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.97354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 880600, "relative_activity": 1.100984, "balance": 1.97354, "dry_up": 1.838203, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038917, "annualized_volatility": 0.242828, "from_high_reference": -0.157895, "from_low_reference": 0.07902 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.257127, "fair_value_reference": 0.201349, "structural_low": 0.222424, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.039871, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.043126, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.065992, "worst_return": -0.087436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023436, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037798, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.141029, "worst_return": -0.161704, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.026443, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081648, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.167717, "worst_return": -0.220603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.259523, "fair_value": 0.20033, "relative_strength": -24.997883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.28471, "energy": 90.658331, "activity_lines": [ 0.228764, 0.23847, 0.248831, 0.254096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.23693, "volume": 2506300, "typical_volume": 894925.0, "trend": 0.258601, "fair_value": 0.200669, "relative_strength": -22.518837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.900229, "energy": 86.593939, "activity_lines": [ 0.230483, 0.23675, 0.247116, 0.252638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.245, "volume": 1420500, "typical_volume": 815875.0, "trend": 0.257627, "fair_value": 0.201037, "relative_strength": -19.949113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.730367, "energy": 57.643817, "activity_lines": [ 0.235429, 0.237008, 0.246255, 0.25176 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.24, "volume": 880600, "typical_volume": 799830.0, "trend": 0.257127, "fair_value": 0.201349, "relative_strength": -22.048289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.23452, "energy": 40.022466, "activity_lines": [ 0.238171, 0.236721, 0.245013, 0.250623 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }