{ "ticker": { "uuid": "609ced03-c1c3-492d-8c0e-1a3f4ea4086c", "symbol": "GXDW", "name": "GLOBAL X DORSEY WRIGHT THEMATIC ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.761, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.287, "architecture_energy": 53.001, "architecture_maturity": 8.828, "architecture_confidence": 78.697, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.99, "rotation_up": 14.65, "upward_expansion": 25.77, "deceleration": 50.23, "rotation_down": 69.51, "downward_expansion": 55.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.65822, 24.451363, 25.730641, 25.516561 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.3326, "trend_reference": 25.224307, "distance_from_trend": -0.035351, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.057641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011429, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.710826, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011519, "excess_performance": -0.175934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035351, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004023, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011429, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186186, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011519, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.941545, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26103, "relative_activity": 0.987792, "balance": 0.941545, "dry_up": 0.653069, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082394, "annualized_volatility": 0.331324, "from_high_reference": -0.205686, "from_low_reference": 0.131891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.224307, "fair_value_reference": 24.057641, "structural_low": 21.4973, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016449, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.014703, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042359, "worst_return": -0.114857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.091711, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.069848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.046256, "worst_return": -0.221251, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014652, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077819, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11302, "worst_return": -0.290203, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007094, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045496, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123417, "active": false }, { 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.36, "volume": 5549, "typical_volume": 26162.35, "trend": 25.321971, "fair_value": 24.081769, "relative_strength": -16.416491, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.671365, "energy": 44.7829, "activity_lines": [ 23.975643, 25.346527, 26.121632, 25.72107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.0847, "volume": 22942, "typical_volume": 26373.7, "trend": 25.265224, "fair_value": 24.06318, "relative_strength": -17.383806, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.700894, "energy": 57.492708, "activity_lines": [ 23.516147, 24.729504, 25.866673, 25.57673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.3326, "volume": 26103, "typical_volume": 26425.6, "trend": 25.224307, "fair_value": 24.057641, "relative_strength": -16.710826, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.286695, "energy": 53.001363, "activity_lines": [ 23.65822, 24.451363, 25.730641, 25.516561 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }