{ "ticker": { "uuid": "609ffe66-c5f0-42b0-a1bf-23894fa616c4", "symbol": "CMI", "name": "Cummins Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.944, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.57, "architecture_energy": 28.852, "architecture_maturity": 61.572, "architecture_confidence": 88.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.72, "rotation_up": 20.36, "upward_expansion": 55.58, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 41.46, "downward_expansion": 21.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 11382.786654, 11616.045455, 11558.941104, 11292.935064 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11290.0, "trend_reference": 10938.287923, "distance_from_trend": 0.032154, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6560.45131, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.720918, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.91322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100801, "excess_performance": 0.155467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032154, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081762, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.720918, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149687, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.179132, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100801, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.104295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5547, "relative_activity": 8.68211, "balance": 0.104295, "dry_up": 2.175614, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036795, "annualized_volatility": 0.273557, "from_high_reference": -0.103534, "from_low_reference": 0.89895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10938.287923, "fair_value_reference": 6560.45131, "structural_low": 9996.270508, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.000336, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.016398, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.437794, "worst_return": -0.078062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.056432, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.012559, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.724483, "worst_return": -0.093835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.159525, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.153744, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.725063, "worst_return": -0.0168, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000306, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000336, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": 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"fair_value": 6472.070594, "relative_strength": 21.834019, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.840293, "energy": 35.929034, "activity_lines": [ 11658.226628, 11747.576012, 11545.814783, 11231.370737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11364.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 361.55, "trend": 10880.169173, "fair_value": 6516.498131, "relative_strength": 19.756129, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.417218, "energy": 28.77845, "activity_lines": [ 11509.973307, 11686.80364, 11559.153492, 11266.494365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11290.0, "volume": 5547, "typical_volume": 638.9, "trend": 10938.287923, "fair_value": 6560.45131, "relative_strength": 17.91322, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.570266, "energy": 28.851786, "activity_lines": [ 11382.786654, 11616.045455, 11558.941104, 11292.935064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }