{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60a11190-42c7-4815-8d17-0c2a7d9c4aa8", "symbol": "000877", "name": "Tianshan Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.415, "architecture_energy": 62.139, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 28.74, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 53.06, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.726, 3.749091, 4.004381, 4.269247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.79, "trend_reference": 4.636333, "distance_from_trend": -0.182544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.749941, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340863, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.575695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.330389, "excess_performance": -0.337788, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182544, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118177, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340863, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0107, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.330389, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.160284, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67729261, "relative_activity": 1.271469, "balance": 0.160284, "dry_up": 1.327534, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 8 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063122, "annualized_volatility": 0.235404, "from_high_reference": -0.48645, "from_low_reference": 0.070621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.636333, "fair_value_reference": 5.749941, "structural_low": 3.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.028443, "positive_rate": 0.435897, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.018033, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.28341, "worst_return": -0.162162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.00225, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.056906, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.389006, "worst_return": -0.292197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.071023, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109567, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.231084, "worst_return": -0.33042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 3.698667, 3.872182, 4.195238, 4.465742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.56, "volume": 73072362, "typical_volume": 55479501.5, "trend": 4.739, "fair_value": 5.804315, "relative_strength": -33.664976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.243382, "energy": 72.031505, "activity_lines": [ 3.638, 3.785636, 4.107619, 4.385785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.83, "volume": 72519770, "typical_volume": 54660713.75, "trend": 4.687333, "fair_value": 5.777602, "relative_strength": -26.838829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.996313, "energy": 65.395461, "activity_lines": [ 3.692667, 3.765091, 4.05419, 4.32714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.79, "volume": 67729261, "typical_volume": 53268522.5, "trend": 4.636333, "fair_value": 5.749941, "relative_strength": -30.575695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.415069, "energy": 62.138554, "activity_lines": [ 3.726, 3.749091, 4.004381, 4.269247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }