{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60a4b634-6799-4a8b-bd3d-cc666a675602", "symbol": "3529", "name": "eMemory Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.338, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.864, "architecture_energy": 27.817, "architecture_maturity": 18.613, "architecture_confidence": 75.346, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.9, "rotation_up": 25.74, "upward_expansion": 10.66, "deceleration": 60.26, "rotation_down": 49.78, "downward_expansion": 49.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 2592.666667, 2631.140434, 2947.812372, 2971.016969 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2655.0, "trend_reference": 2826.486711, "distance_from_trend": -0.060671, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2492.312208, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065276, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.912765, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.444476, "excess_performance": 0.003104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060671, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11586, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065276, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.510048, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.444476, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.650058, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4739873, "relative_activity": 1.18259, "balance": 0.650058, "dry_up": 1.143049, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166951, "annualized_volatility": 0.755265, "from_high_reference": -0.441529, "from_low_reference": 0.793477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2826.486711, "fair_value_reference": 2492.312208, "structural_low": 1758.553612, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098739, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.048653, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.125296, "worst_return": -0.144788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086873, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.091648, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090195, "worst_return": -0.243697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.117494, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.089269, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.528176, "worst_return": -0.254306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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2826.486711, "fair_value": 2492.312208, "relative_strength": -20.912765, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.863589, "energy": 27.817169, "activity_lines": [ 2592.666667, 2631.140434, 2947.812372, 2971.016969 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }