{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60a582ef-aa38-4f42-8622-641e9f1973bc", "symbol": "SPIE", "name": "SPIE SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.571, "architecture_energy": 27.428, "architecture_maturity": 12.956, "architecture_confidence": 55.875, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.3, "rotation_up": 17.04, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 64.35, "rotation_down": 63.06, "downward_expansion": 42.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.070668, 48.257273, 48.451805, 48.061382 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.5, "trend_reference": 47.678334, "distance_from_trend": -0.024714, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.715922, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.792198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023255, "excess_performance": -0.076566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021617, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124926, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.40666, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1777617, "relative_activity": 1.399252, "balance": 1.40666, "dry_up": 1.240915, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050091, "annualized_volatility": 0.279375, "from_high_reference": -0.130028, "from_low_reference": 0.13985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.678334, "fair_value_reference": 37.715922, "structural_low": 41.129534, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.023927, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": 0.002854, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.143327, "worst_return": -0.189333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.009119, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.001842, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.201031, "worst_return": -0.026686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068658, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.063295, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.270925, "worst_return": 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-1.37334, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.019658, "energy": 51.875206, "activity_lines": [ 50.208, 49.707091, 48.647192, 48.211224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.700001, "volume": 1325978, "typical_volume": 1430097.7, "trend": 47.79214, "fair_value": 37.303568, "relative_strength": -2.04882, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.963401, "energy": 24.005992, "activity_lines": [ 49.402001, 49.406909, 48.633844, 48.204717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.380001, "volume": 1769050, "typical_volume": 1384245.3, "trend": 47.811341, "fair_value": 37.448613, "relative_strength": -0.945896, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.152446, "energy": 15.772877, "activity_lines": [ 48.905334, 49.259819, 48.704224, 48.242643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.240002, "volume": 1433215, "typical_volume": 1296646.2, "trend": 47.738207, "fair_value": 37.581852, "relative_strength": -6.528396, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.145681, "energy": 17.913216, "activity_lines": [ 47.779335, 48.714546, 48.568613, 48.141267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.5, "volume": 1777617, "typical_volume": 1270405.5, "trend": 47.678334, "fair_value": 37.715922, "relative_strength": -7.792198, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.570836, "energy": 27.428496, "activity_lines": [ 47.070668, 48.257273, 48.451805, 48.061382 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }