{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60aa22ec-394f-445c-b081-049dec12a9d0", "symbol": "SWLD", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.252, "architecture_energy": 58.135, "architecture_maturity": 81.484, "architecture_confidence": 66.337, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.74, "rotation_up": 50.47, "upward_expansion": 80.1, "deceleration": 71.21, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 9.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.386334, 39.273637, 38.856738, 38.159478 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.264999, "trend_reference": 37.334833, "distance_from_trend": 0.078483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.253381, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288341, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.615364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126766, "excess_performance": 0.075531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288341, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030511, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026154, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126766, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.399766, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 358393, "relative_activity": 1.489774, "balance": 1.399766, "dry_up": 1.009278, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018254, "annualized_volatility": 0.114819, "from_high_reference": -0.003342, "from_low_reference": 0.230399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.334833, "fair_value_reference": 31.253381, "structural_low": 33.849998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.008625, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002103, "regime_survival": 0.844444, "best_return": 0.051075, "worst_return": -0.073678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.037089, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.020997, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.081746, "worst_return": -0.127653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.06327, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.018271, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.111781, "worst_return": -0.07805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.09, "volume": 179656, "typical_volume": 246460.8, "trend": 37.085, "fair_value": 31.058478, "relative_strength": 1.198655, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.910617, "energy": 51.3783, "activity_lines": [ 39.081667, 39.098273, 38.513881, 37.849102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.830002, "volume": 166318, "typical_volume": 235955.0, "trend": 37.199167, "fair_value": 31.150609, "relative_strength": -0.694208, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.288894, "energy": 41.951492, "activity_lines": [ 38.988334, 39.056091, 38.625286, 37.961683 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.264999, "volume": 358393, "typical_volume": 240568.65, "trend": 37.334833, "fair_value": 31.253381, "relative_strength": 2.615364, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.252072, "energy": 58.135354, "activity_lines": [ 39.386334, 39.273637, 38.856738, 38.159478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }