{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "60abe233-3c0f-4781-af26-d69cf58f92a1",
    "symbol": "ICOS",
    "name": "Intercos S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 77.222,
    "architecture_energy": 56.775,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.684,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.744,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 6.95,
        "rotation_up": 70.12,
        "upward_expansion": 83.92,
        "deceleration": 50.16,
        "rotation_down": 13.9,
        "downward_expansion": 8.26
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        13.358667,
        13.119636,
        12.734261,
        12.510649
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 13.94,
    "trend_reference": 12.297623,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.133552,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 13.047024,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068443,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.124991,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.153952,
    "excess_performance": -0.01694,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.133552,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.051515,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.068443,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.146643,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00125,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.10818,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.153952,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.801931,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1153935,
      "relative_activity": 3.052656,
      "balance": 5.801931,
      "dry_up": 1.493345,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.056727,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.224524,
      "from_high_reference": -0.034626,
      "from_low_reference": 0.339369
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 12.297623,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.047024,
      "structural_low": 11.017797,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.017584,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011446,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.040609,
        "worst_return": -0.133244,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.015584,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02882,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.06593,
        "worst_return": -0.060367,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.087927,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.159802,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.085038,
        "worst_return": -0.103145,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.062882,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
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        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.014067,
        "worst_return": -0.13983,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-11-01",
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        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 367871.6,
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        "fair_value": 13.076601,
        "relative_strength": -5.597346,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 550652,
        "typical_volume": 378756.4,
        "trend": 12.077306,
        "fair_value": 13.067508,
        "relative_strength": -1.344079,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 67.268614,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.034667,
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          12.291065
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 12.64,
        "volume": 205387,
        "typical_volume": 349019.25,
        "trend": 12.137937,
        "fair_value": 13.051471,
        "relative_strength": -6.226627,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.054224,
        "energy": 50.479676,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.934667,
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          12.486,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 13.26,
        "volume": 348025,
        "typical_volume": 343189.55,
        "trend": 12.221203,
        "fair_value": 13.046884,
        "relative_strength": -2.101913,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.508926,
        "energy": 47.171509,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.06,
          12.899636,
          12.582432,
          12.399759
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 13.94,
        "volume": 1153935,
        "typical_volume": 378010.2,
        "trend": 12.297623,
        "fair_value": 13.047024,
        "relative_strength": 0.124991,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.222328,
        "energy": 56.775012,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.358667,
          13.119636,
          12.734261,
          12.510649
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}