{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60ad0a69-7ecc-42b3-8ec4-53f686c513da", "symbol": "000661", "name": "Changchun High-Tech Industry (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.12, "architecture_energy": 22.7, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 45.506, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.48, "rotation_up": 44.34, "upward_expansion": 23.07, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 14.25, "downward_expansion": 52.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.816002, 73.663092, 74.588666, 77.737858 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 80.510002, "trend_reference": 82.597028, "distance_from_trend": -0.025268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 103.258576, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.184979, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.158776, "excess_performance": -0.166176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025268, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220307, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18185, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130771, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158776, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.216983, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54367863, "relative_activity": 1.889431, "balance": 1.216983, "dry_up": 2.103504, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082576, "annualized_volatility": 0.321476, "from_high_reference": -0.430956, "from_low_reference": 0.282415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.597028, "fair_value_reference": 103.258576, "structural_low": 62.779999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.007714, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.018545, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.329193, "worst_return": -0.20812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.11522, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.085198, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.240109, "worst_return": -0.241059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.055614, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.182104, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.308432, "worst_return": -0.329918, 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79.411667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.480003, "volume": 72459567, "typical_volume": 24438577.2, "trend": 84.110596, "fair_value": 104.326557, "relative_strength": -25.41637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.221068, "energy": 51.364954, "activity_lines": [ 69.132001, 68.995811, 74.364218, 78.616188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.410004, "volume": 65332597, "typical_volume": 25644417.85, "trend": 83.431409, "fair_value": 103.957942, "relative_strength": -21.971783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.370183, "energy": 29.775802, "activity_lines": [ 71.746002, 69.81291, 74.036988, 78.054859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.0, "volume": 49950924, "typical_volume": 27036568.0, "trend": 82.992114, "fair_value": 103.606583, "relative_strength": -14.202053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.033307, "energy": 23.497549, "activity_lines": [ 75.469335, 71.802183, 74.315165, 77.897994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.510002, "volume": 54367863, "typical_volume": 28774724.3, "trend": 82.597028, "fair_value": 103.258576, "relative_strength": -18.184979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.119846, "energy": 22.700041, "activity_lines": [ 77.816002, 73.663092, 74.588666, 77.737858 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }