{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60b20132-ce1a-41e5-abb2-05c38d83a2d2", "symbol": "6661", "name": "Welgene Biotech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.968, "architecture_energy": 23.059, "architecture_maturity": 12.865, "architecture_confidence": 76.456, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.7, "rotation_up": 20.18, "upward_expansion": 12.29, "deceleration": 52.4, "rotation_down": 45.17, "downward_expansion": 64.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.19, 17.382727, 17.349762, 17.625484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.75, "trend_reference": 18.026667, "distance_from_trend": -0.070821, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.877885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.234387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.988128, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.134367, "excess_performance": -0.575739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070821, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0262, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.234387, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003025, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.379881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042025, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134367, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.848287, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41000, "relative_activity": 0.935346, "balance": 0.848287, "dry_up": 0.525003, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087256, "annualized_volatility": 0.245378, "from_high_reference": -0.303534, "from_low_reference": 0.080645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.026667, "fair_value_reference": 21.877885, "structural_low": 15.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.014293, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.274123, "worst_return": -0.093023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.008575, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.032064, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.110879, "worst_return": -0.16408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026144, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.111272, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.087248, "worst_return": -0.161862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.123277, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017584, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.261506, "worst_return": -0.161874, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044872, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026786, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041394, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.24183, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070664, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.164271, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011086, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180828, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048295, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 23.950001, "volume": 95000, "typical_volume": 143150.0, "trend": 23.173619, "fair_value": 24.916101, "relative_strength": -3.3601, "stage": 2, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 18.25, "volume": 26000, "typical_volume": 45219.8, "trend": 18.246667, "fair_value": 22.079808, "relative_strength": -36.760966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.700661, "energy": 16.642879, "activity_lines": [ 17.63, 17.252727, 17.573333, 17.890107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.0, "volume": 20000, "typical_volume": 44264.9, "trend": 18.218333, "fair_value": 22.048397, "relative_strength": -32.726156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.533013, "energy": 21.82567, "activity_lines": [ 17.913333, 17.398182, 17.579048, 17.874193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.5, "volume": 24042, "typical_volume": 44252.0, "trend": 18.178333, "fair_value": 22.016346, "relative_strength": -35.07849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.988656, "energy": 21.191238, "activity_lines": [ 17.896667, 17.449091, 17.540714, 17.827849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.9, "volume": 11000, "typical_volume": 43602.0, "trend": 18.121667, "fair_value": 21.976282, "relative_strength": -35.49954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.093962, "energy": 16.893084, "activity_lines": [ 17.57, 17.385454, 17.451667, 17.745376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.6, "volume": 16010, "typical_volume": 42985.5, "trend": 18.086667, "fair_value": 21.935897, "relative_strength": -33.527327, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.272195, "energy": 9.177191, "activity_lines": [ 17.49, 17.466364, 17.438095, 17.71172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.75, "volume": 41000, "typical_volume": 43834.05, "trend": 18.026667, "fair_value": 21.877885, "relative_strength": -37.988128, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.967684, "energy": 23.058742, "activity_lines": [ 17.19, 17.382727, 17.349762, 17.625484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }