{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60b96035-984b-486a-8eb4-00631225e2c6", "symbol": "4716", "name": "Daily Polymer Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.551, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.173, "architecture_energy": 24.572, "architecture_maturity": 65.263, "architecture_confidence": 74.962, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.19, "rotation_up": 20.25, "upward_expansion": 54.14, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 42.77, "downward_expansion": 22.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.3, 18.663636, 18.023809, 17.246129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.700001, "trend_reference": 16.415, "distance_from_trend": 0.078282, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.475863, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074299, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.811651, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.183947, "excess_performance": -0.257425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078282, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074299, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125821, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11731, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.183947, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.307593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13604367, "relative_activity": 1.703536, "balance": 1.307593, "dry_up": 0.840879, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.155585, "annualized_volatility": 0.583054, "from_high_reference": -0.324427, "from_low_reference": 0.32893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.415, "fair_value_reference": 16.475863, "structural_low": 13.7, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013222, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.010424, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.015695, "worst_return": -0.127983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005975, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006841, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060538, "worst_return": -0.119306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.011328, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.106631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.044843, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078788, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135593, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019737, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037162, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072202, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 6976007.0, "trend": 16.316667, "fair_value": 16.360431, "relative_strength": -12.47106, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.718765, "energy": 80.343797, "activity_lines": [ 21.243333, 19.787272, 17.854524, 17.017634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.049999, "volume": 5479019, "typical_volume": 7164925.8, "trend": 16.355, "fair_value": 16.394053, "relative_strength": -17.299866, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.203871, "energy": 49.040949, "activity_lines": [ 20.186666, 19.71909, 17.995476, 17.129462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.5, "volume": 4324636, "typical_volume": 7297455.4, "trend": 16.34, "fair_value": 16.419237, "relative_strength": -22.865864, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.647837, "energy": 19.856502, "activity_lines": [ 18.626666, 19.316363, 17.973333, 17.138817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.65, "volume": 3452883, "typical_volume": 7362545.3, "trend": 16.346667, "fair_value": 16.444784, "relative_strength": -23.411479, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.086492, "energy": 25.719658, "activity_lines": [ 17.59, 18.911818, 17.954047, 17.158817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 13604367, "typical_volume": 7985955.75, "trend": 16.415, "fair_value": 16.475863, "relative_strength": -20.811651, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.172709, "energy": 24.571511, "activity_lines": [ 17.3, 18.663636, 18.023809, 17.246129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }