{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60bb54a6-42b9-4e37-b0ab-f00d5bb9d852", "symbol": "600861", "name": "FESCO Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.809, "architecture_energy": 34.049, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.857, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.09, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 22.85, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 35.13, "downward_expansion": 63.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.174, 12.987744, 13.353213, 14.105178 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.24, "trend_reference": 15.277477, "distance_from_trend": -0.133365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.19032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.534784, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.287022, "excess_performance": -0.243818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051514, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061487, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.287022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.471911, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16485953, "relative_activity": 1.408373, "balance": 0.471911, "dry_up": 1.499148, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058638, "annualized_volatility": 0.232831, "from_high_reference": -0.411556, "from_low_reference": 0.096935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.277477, "fair_value_reference": 18.19032, "structural_low": 12.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.030615, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.013298, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.353423, "worst_return": -0.144715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012415, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.173442, "worst_return": -0.171279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.162508, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.075491, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.181951, "worst_return": -0.198903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.828437, 14.763989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.91, "volume": 14711911, "typical_volume": 11451237.95, "trend": 15.77981, "fair_value": 18.380107, "relative_strength": -22.374648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.414253, "energy": 66.523828, "activity_lines": [ 12.660667, 12.872219, 13.654893, 14.566797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.66, "volume": 13432141, "typical_volume": 11230695.7, "trend": 15.58781, "fair_value": 18.314155, "relative_strength": -24.116075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.626016, "energy": 63.930642, "activity_lines": [ 12.667333, 12.791725, 13.481587, 14.365519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.76, "volume": 25564114, "typical_volume": 11767960.65, "trend": 15.447477, "fair_value": 18.257234, "relative_strength": -17.088118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.055531, "energy": 46.80588, "activity_lines": [ 13.060667, 12.938118, 13.434709, 14.247596 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.24, "volume": 16485953, "typical_volume": 11705671.6, "trend": 15.277477, "fair_value": 18.19032, "relative_strength": -21.534784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.80893, "energy": 34.049273, "activity_lines": [ 13.174, 12.987744, 13.353213, 14.105178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }