{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60c147c5-a3b2-4a6d-b7a8-93399e7ac81c", "symbol": "4744", "name": "CVC Technologies Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.502, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.07, "architecture_energy": 15.846, "architecture_maturity": 31.168, "architecture_confidence": 69.669, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.93, "rotation_up": 25.59, "upward_expansion": 15.18, "deceleration": 41.4, "rotation_down": 28.01, "downward_expansion": 58.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.810464, 28.294214, 29.192636, 29.983972 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 28.75, "trend_reference": 30.48916, "distance_from_trend": -0.057042, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.401909, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131805, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.019855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06773, "excess_performance": -0.509102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057042, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131805, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101022, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06773, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.646368, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 248376, "relative_activity": 0.141797, "balance": 0.646368, "dry_up": 0.211665, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136696, "annualized_volatility": 0.486959, "from_high_reference": -0.257206, "from_low_reference": 0.283881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.48916, "fair_value_reference": 25.401909, "structural_low": 22.393044, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.044658, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009112, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.105651, "worst_return": -0.102253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013857, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.020927, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.240989, "worst_return": -0.115174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026929, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.123871, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.331384, "worst_return": -0.185185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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30.488, "fair_value": 25.428737, "relative_strength": -27.381375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.11686, "energy": 19.491427, "activity_lines": [ 29.114175, 28.44759, 29.660441, 30.268699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.798262, "volume": 202689, "typical_volume": 1872290.8, "trend": 30.473522, "fair_value": 25.408605, "relative_strength": -31.628989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.692486, "energy": 20.173628, "activity_lines": [ 28.911479, 28.233487, 29.36605, 30.095167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.75, "volume": 248376, "typical_volume": 1751625.7, "trend": 30.48916, "fair_value": 25.401909, "relative_strength": -31.019855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.069637, "energy": 15.845859, "activity_lines": [ 28.810464, 28.294214, 29.192636, 29.983972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }