{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60c3f83d-d57c-4e16-af52-e1c5f0bfc36d", "symbol": "MATV", "name": "Mativ Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 68.252, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.329, "architecture_energy": 44.859, "architecture_maturity": 29.203, "architecture_confidence": 95.151, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.6, "rotation_up": 67.65, "upward_expansion": 35.83, "deceleration": 41.67, "rotation_down": 16.75, "downward_expansion": 24.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.838667, 8.940909, 8.685241, 8.877874 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.89, "trend_reference": 9.529051, "distance_from_trend": 0.352706, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.421849, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.722932, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093978, "excess_performance": -0.219603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.352706, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113517, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.363257, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097229, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.275048, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093978, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.896352, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4286065, "relative_activity": 1.829552, "balance": 2.896352, "dry_up": 1.136858, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086171, "annualized_volatility": 0.843491, "from_high_reference": -0.14841, "from_low_reference": 0.823197 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.529051, "fair_value_reference": 11.421849, "structural_low": 7.07, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.233903, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.212159, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.33428, "worst_return": 0.033889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.113141, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.064713, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287428, "worst_return": -0.061146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.378815, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.287814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.746336, "worst_return": 0.011294, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009645, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.573007, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.521682, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.215586, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214286, "active": false 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"energy": 55.090398, "activity_lines": [ 7.754667, 8.029221, 8.40203, 9.08887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.81, "volume": 2943963, "typical_volume": 2296433.15, "trend": 9.894515, "fair_value": 11.559649, "relative_strength": -31.630312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.784209, "energy": 47.430832, "activity_lines": [ 7.764667, 7.941508, 8.312348, 8.944644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.02, "volume": 2287654, "typical_volume": 2282579.6, "trend": 9.754756, "fair_value": 11.523732, "relative_strength": -28.649718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.056219, "energy": 43.480588, "activity_lines": [ 7.82, 7.918803, 8.258603, 8.823708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.12, "volume": 2029940, "typical_volume": 2302379.1, "trend": 9.61996, "fair_value": 11.485701, "relative_strength": -27.280875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.418435, "energy": 37.99129, "activity_lines": [ 7.916, 7.93423, 8.226665, 8.718239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.73, "volume": 2049541, "typical_volume": 2289707.85, "trend": 9.525706, "fair_value": 11.440901, "relative_strength": -22.851181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.865528, "energy": 18.169521, "activity_lines": [ 8.202, 8.060182, 8.25783, 8.660823 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.89, "volume": 4286065, "typical_volume": 2342685.65, "trend": 9.529051, "fair_value": 11.421849, "relative_strength": 9.722932, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.329117, "energy": 44.859166, "activity_lines": [ 9.838667, 8.940909, 8.685241, 8.877874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }