{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60ca8e00-c5ea-4df5-ac4e-8a6895da96be", "symbol": "IAUP", "name": "iShares V PLC - iShares Gold Producers UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.126, "architecture_energy": 20.137, "architecture_maturity": 51.367, "architecture_confidence": 83.208, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.0, "rotation_up": 28.27, "upward_expansion": 17.32, "deceleration": 43.43, "rotation_down": 31.72, "downward_expansion": 64.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.78, 29.372909, 30.222595, 31.259107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.555, "trend_reference": 32.713, "distance_from_trend": 0.025739, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.897006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.686435, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.649149, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02172, "excess_performance": -0.104603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025739, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.686435, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137553, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176735, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02172, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42555, "relative_activity": 0.498878, "balance": 0.568397, "dry_up": 0.440353, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068303, "annualized_volatility": 0.535812, "from_high_reference": -0.208328, "from_low_reference": 0.594062 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.713, "fair_value_reference": 19.897006, "structural_low": 26.105, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.019511, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.027414, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.15488, "worst_return": -0.109687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020763, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.0618, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.328658, "worst_return": -0.070286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.205915, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.18141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264624, "worst_return": -0.066009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041062, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065359, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111254, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.279505, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", 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29.162666, 29.743636, 31.179452, 32.22343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.545, "volume": 46553, "typical_volume": 126406.95, "trend": 32.960333, "fair_value": 19.539667, "relative_strength": -19.539714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.490936, "energy": 77.72743, "activity_lines": [ 28.239666, 29.036091, 30.614333, 31.798462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.799999, "volume": 20628, "typical_volume": 116150.4, "trend": 32.8445, "fair_value": 19.648923, "relative_strength": -12.874294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.987409, "energy": 58.97364, "activity_lines": [ 28.256999, 28.866454, 30.330143, 31.530054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.809999, "volume": 40515, "typical_volume": 103869.1, "trend": 32.720166, "fair_value": 19.754628, "relative_strength": -16.187128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.143084, "energy": 60.946068, "activity_lines": [ 28.019333, 28.570272, 29.987285, 31.205247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.555, "volume": 42555, "typical_volume": 85301.5, "trend": 32.713, "fair_value": 19.897006, "relative_strength": -0.649149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.12645, "energy": 20.136833, "activity_lines": [ 29.78, 29.372909, 30.222595, 31.259107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }