{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60d601b4-301c-4851-9547-385f6c32ff57", "symbol": "4263", "name": "SAL Saudi Logistics Services Co", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.15, "architecture_energy": 18.655, "architecture_maturity": 49.323, "architecture_confidence": 91.057, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.87, "rotation_up": 23.21, "upward_expansion": 53.71, "deceleration": 90.78, "rotation_down": 32.71, "downward_expansion": 19.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 170.754615, 172.69288, 171.299071, 169.104487 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 173.0, "trend_reference": 167.456067, "distance_from_trend": 0.033107, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 202.823843, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.147043, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.916307, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.004448, "excess_performance": 0.036277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033107, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018353, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.147043, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059251, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049163, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068834, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004448, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.64759, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1729692, "relative_activity": 2.211202, "balance": 1.64759, "dry_up": 1.351371, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047665, "annualized_volatility": 0.254465, "from_high_reference": -0.069892, "from_low_reference": 0.191511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 167.456067, "fair_value_reference": 202.823843, "structural_low": 145.193764, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066267, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", 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"2026-07-31", "close": 171.255386, "volume": 903574, "typical_volume": 708311.85, "trend": 166.996191, "fair_value": 203.033871, "relative_strength": 6.419477, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.006618, "energy": 20.573421, "activity_lines": [ 170.231804, 172.737568, 170.844557, 168.717144 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 173.0, "volume": 1729692, "typical_volume": 782240.7, "trend": 167.456067, "fair_value": 202.823843, "relative_strength": 4.916307, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.1496, "energy": 18.655452, "activity_lines": [ 170.754615, 172.69288, 171.299071, 169.104487 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }