{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60d96bbf-4238-48e4-a7c6-dee3bd6ccc26", "symbol": "H3E", "name": "H3 Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.567, "architecture_energy": 83.321, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.447, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.18, "rotation_up": 10.04, "upward_expansion": 19.26, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 75.79, "downward_expansion": 92.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006533, 0.007018, 0.007581, 0.007852 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.008067, "distance_from_trend": -0.256198, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.011978, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.499063, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.439175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256198, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024194, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.499063, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014446, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.224392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.436899, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.290702, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3700347, "relative_activity": 0.470616, "balance": 0.290702, "dry_up": 1.425159, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128205, "annualized_volatility": 1.161577, "from_high_reference": -0.538462, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008067, "fair_value_reference": 0.011978, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.16129, "directional_follow_through": 0.387097, "median_excess_return": -0.048469, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.4375, "worst_return": -0.68, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.177285, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.56, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.320759, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7615230.6, "trend": 0.0082, "fair_value": 0.012817, "relative_strength": 10.483613, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.838836, "energy": 16.870184, "activity_lines": [ 0.007733, 0.007745, 0.008148, 0.008209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 19754033, "typical_volume": 8179551.9, "trend": 0.0082, "fair_value": 0.012542, "relative_strength": -3.813979, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.664016, "energy": 47.548824, "activity_lines": [ 0.007467, 0.0076, 0.008014, 0.008131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 8429456, "typical_volume": 8259262.65, "trend": 0.008133, "fair_value": 0.01226, "relative_strength": -19.6029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.952064, "energy": 73.940792, "activity_lines": [ 0.006933, 0.007291, 0.007795, 0.007989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 3700347, "typical_volume": 7862769.85, "trend": 0.008067, "fair_value": 0.011978, "relative_strength": -22.439175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.566808, "energy": 83.321021, "activity_lines": [ 0.006533, 0.007018, 0.007581, 0.007852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }