{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60da4a24-e9f8-4c17-94e8-ca5f6ef550b1", "symbol": "KTN", "name": "Kontron AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.48, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.82, "architecture_energy": 20.509, "architecture_maturity": 43.968, "architecture_confidence": 72.357, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.56, "rotation_up": 14.76, "upward_expansion": 18.43, "deceleration": 70.31, "rotation_down": 50.78, "downward_expansion": 29.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.516001, 22.817091, 22.754429, 22.546129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.780001, "trend_reference": 22.57, "distance_from_trend": -0.035002, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.927363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040743, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.52534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019802, "excess_performance": -0.194049, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035002, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002828, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040743, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071009, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245253, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019802, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.999631, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23165, "relative_activity": 1.211204, "balance": 0.999631, "dry_up": 0.608412, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038991, "annualized_volatility": 0.432841, "from_high_reference": -0.230389, "from_low_reference": 0.324012 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.57, "fair_value_reference": 20.927363, "structural_low": 16.450001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.035454, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034381, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.161153, "worst_return": -0.077316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075672, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.049113, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.332985, "worst_return": -0.085835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.106881, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.000116, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.257273, "worst_return": -0.254678, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042521, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032086, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.059999, "volume": 5729, "typical_volume": 22947.65, "trend": 22.664, "fair_value": 20.81957, "relative_strength": -21.521324, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.481526, "energy": 26.252304, "activity_lines": [ 23.234666, 23.243999, 22.606428, 22.566387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.940001, "volume": 7277, "typical_volume": 21786.7, "trend": 22.680667, "fair_value": 20.850327, "relative_strength": -19.517289, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.70542, "energy": 17.723618, "activity_lines": [ 23.108, 23.198909, 22.670143, 22.584193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.82, "volume": 4150, "typical_volume": 21057.25, "trend": 22.684, "fair_value": 20.879522, "relative_strength": -20.203159, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.24922, "energy": 11.313369, "activity_lines": [ 22.985333, 23.129454, 22.725857, 22.593183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.860001, "volume": 11953, "typical_volume": 20859.95, "trend": 22.685333, "fair_value": 20.90319, "relative_strength": -19.178303, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.55917, "energy": 10.282736, "activity_lines": [ 22.916, 23.070909, 22.787, 22.604538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.780001, "volume": 23165, "typical_volume": 19125.6, "trend": 22.57, "fair_value": 20.927363, "relative_strength": -24.52534, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.819846, "energy": 20.50902, "activity_lines": [ 22.516001, 22.817091, 22.754429, 22.546129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }