{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "60dc7ff4-0c22-41fc-bd45-a506368e4cae",
    "symbol": "XUT3",
    "name": "Xtrackers II US Treasuries 1-3 UCITS ETF 1D",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 74.848,
    "architecture_energy": 54.468,
    "architecture_maturity": 32.426,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.282,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.79,
        "rotation_up": 68.17,
        "upward_expansion": 83.32,
        "deceleration": 50.41,
        "rotation_down": 14.95,
        "downward_expansion": 7.65
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        168.485668,
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        168.175666,
        168.048906
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 168.770004,
    "trend_reference": 167.875528,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.005328,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 159.960103,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055076,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.931636,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.00696,
    "excess_performance": -0.044275,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005328,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003259,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055076,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006238,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.069316,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022161,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00696,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.659947,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1178,
      "relative_activity": 1.26728,
      "balance": 0.659947,
      "dry_up": 1.164542,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.002612,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.013093,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004659,
      "from_low_reference": 0.028652
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 167.875528,
      "fair_value_reference": 159.960103,
      "structural_low": 166.440002,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.003242,
        "positive_rate": 0.763158,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.763158,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009595,
        "regime_survival": 0.842105,
        "best_return": 0.014461,
        "worst_return": -0.005627,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
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        "positive_rate": 0.846154,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.846154,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005217,
        "regime_survival": 0.769231,
        "best_return": 0.028642,
        "worst_return": -0.001929,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03099,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": 0.011624,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "worst_return": 0.03924,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2023-03-17",
        "tenure": "New",
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      },
      {
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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      },
      {
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -4.694898,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 205,
        "typical_volume": 875.85,
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        "fair_value": 159.579806,
        "relative_strength": -5.230455,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 71.27766,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 168.184998,
        "volume": 2170,
        "typical_volume": 972.55,
        "trend": 167.777247,
        "fair_value": 159.705915,
        "relative_strength": -6.385779,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.863405,
        "energy": 56.234332,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 168.380005,
        "volume": 777,
        "typical_volume": 896.65,
        "trend": 167.82038,
        "fair_value": 159.831611,
        "relative_strength": -7.138538,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.265527,
        "energy": 48.144487,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 168.770004,
        "volume": 1178,
        "typical_volume": 929.55,
        "trend": 167.875528,
        "fair_value": 159.960103,
        "relative_strength": -6.931636,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.84763,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}