{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60de3cc2-da45-4a8b-8c58-eae4a9705cc7", "symbol": "2889", "name": "IBF Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.056, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.248, "architecture_energy": 23.629, "architecture_maturity": 8.437, "architecture_confidence": 57.364, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.93, "rotation_up": 55.0, "upward_expansion": 38.42, "deceleration": 31.17, "rotation_down": 18.79, "downward_expansion": 20.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.596667, 15.515455, 15.260714, 15.324839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.75, "trend_reference": 15.576667, "distance_from_trend": 0.011128, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.687903, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150651, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.014425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045455, "excess_performance": -0.486827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011128, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019102, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05769, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290144, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065774, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.96235, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30875641, "relative_activity": 1.364543, "balance": 0.96235, "dry_up": 1.403337, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032479, "annualized_volatility": 0.207155, "from_high_reference": -0.115168, "from_low_reference": 0.097561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.576667, "fair_value_reference": 13.687903, "structural_low": 14.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022165, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036806, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.012552, "worst_return": -0.041825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006676, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130612, "worst_return": -0.064639, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070507, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314286, "worst_return": -0.091255, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 15.583333, 15.353636, 15.146667, 15.341183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.6, "volume": 39163717, "typical_volume": 22487316.75, "trend": 15.636667, "fair_value": 13.625422, "relative_strength": -26.902327, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.196144, "energy": 34.790672, "activity_lines": [ 15.646667, 15.431818, 15.185238, 15.337527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.3, "volume": 28479303, "typical_volume": 23108471.6, "trend": 15.61, "fair_value": 13.655078, "relative_strength": -29.358257, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.629157, "energy": 23.334153, "activity_lines": [ 15.556667, 15.438182, 15.198571, 15.315806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.75, "volume": 30875641, "typical_volume": 22627092.55, "trend": 15.576667, "fair_value": 13.687903, "relative_strength": -29.014425, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.247561, "energy": 23.629119, "activity_lines": [ 15.596667, 15.515455, 15.260714, 15.324839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }