{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60dfbc45-8134-4c2b-af82-159ba424df96", "symbol": "XIIC", "name": "Premier ETF Indonesia Consumer", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.142, "architecture_energy": 15.511, "architecture_maturity": 72.937, "architecture_confidence": 54.188, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.02, "rotation_up": 24.62, "upward_expansion": 17.06, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 29.05, "downward_expansion": 55.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 746.266667, 735.690909, 749.271429, 776.802151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 752.0, "trend_reference": 818.866667, "distance_from_trend": -0.081658, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 920.519231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.18307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.84041, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191398, "excess_performance": 0.000859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081658, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.18307, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048404, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020364, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191398, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.177682, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.177682, "dry_up": 0.891572, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144435, "annualized_volatility": 0.293052, "from_high_reference": -0.339772, "from_low_reference": 0.232787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 818.866667, "fair_value_reference": 920.519231, "structural_low": 610.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003033, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.011587, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.092208, "worst_return": -0.100414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049545, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.02152, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.065171, "worst_return": -0.128385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026289, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032595, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.066007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.08125, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010128, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091209, "worst_return": -0.092949, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040441, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00578, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02924, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044543, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009756, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045685, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 1065.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 5230.0, "trend": 1014.3, "fair_value": 984.480769, "relative_strength": 5.232404, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.140981, "energy": 34.39684, "activity_lines": [ 725.866667, 728.672727, 759.471429, 792.516129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 735.0, "volume": 22200, "typical_volume": 18870.0, "trend": 827.333333, "fair_value": 924.544872, "relative_strength": 6.226061, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.106382, "energy": 24.393135, "activity_lines": [ 729.4, 728.290909, 754.052381, 786.249462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 752.0, "volume": 12700, "typical_volume": 19505.0, "trend": 823.1, "fair_value": 922.557692, "relative_strength": 7.84343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.962321, "energy": 18.989199, "activity_lines": [ 738.733333, 731.963636, 751.219048, 781.389247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 752.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19460.0, "trend": 818.866667, "fair_value": 920.519231, "relative_strength": 4.84041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.141834, "energy": 15.510816, "activity_lines": [ 746.266667, 735.690909, 749.271429, 776.802151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }