{ "ticker": { "uuid": "60e19c38-6983-4f34-9ace-55d5c967a71f", "symbol": "261920", "name": "KINDEX MSCI Philippines ETF(Synth)", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.032, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.235, "architecture_energy": 24.982, "architecture_maturity": 18.288, "architecture_confidence": 73.148, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.69, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 12.28, "deceleration": 58.46, "rotation_down": 55.54, "downward_expansion": 66.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 13447.0, 13606.545455, 13521.261905, 13551.268817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13305.0, "trend_reference": 13658.666667, "distance_from_trend": -0.025893, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13467.846667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.555135, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065332, "excess_performance": -0.295161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009739, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012092, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.261609, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065332, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.511728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1356, "relative_activity": 0.712803, "balance": 0.511728, "dry_up": 0.793229, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040644, "annualized_volatility": 0.196179, "from_high_reference": -0.123806, "from_low_reference": 0.095606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13658.666667, "fair_value_reference": 13467.846667, "structural_low": 12635.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.010402, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.002578, "regime_survival": 0.368421, "best_return": 0.065814, "worst_return": -0.106159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003042, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.002443, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.144414, "worst_return": -0.110392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01531, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.013687, "regime_survival": 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13585.810576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13980.0, "volume": 1505, "typical_volume": 2214.8, "trend": 13671.031803, "fair_value": 13460.153934, "relative_strength": -35.845686, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.312997, "energy": 36.15276, "activity_lines": [ 13900.333333, 13699.909091, 13537.166667, 13606.711729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13830.0, "volume": 1011, "typical_volume": 2185.4, "trend": 13683.333333, "fair_value": 13464.005703, "relative_strength": -29.408211, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.900602, "energy": 30.582776, "activity_lines": [ 13896.0, 13751.545455, 13562.904762, 13616.967742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13380.0, "volume": 758, "typical_volume": 2077.0, "trend": 13690.5, "fair_value": 13465.28905, "relative_strength": -29.303652, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.326561, "energy": 7.837613, "activity_lines": [ 13713.0, 13711.454545, 13549.833333, 13597.397849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13350.0, "volume": 2911, "typical_volume": 1994.05, "trend": 13679.5, "fair_value": 13466.538186, "relative_strength": -27.335968, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.708203, "energy": 15.68681, "activity_lines": [ 13575.666667, 13663.272727, 13536.97619, 13575.430108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13305.0, "volume": 1356, "typical_volume": 1902.35, "trend": 13658.666667, "fair_value": 13467.846667, "relative_strength": -22.555135, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.235334, "energy": 24.982158, "activity_lines": [ 13447.0, 13606.545455, 13521.261905, 13551.268817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }